Voter turnout matters most in Moroccan elections

Moroccans go to the ballot boxes on Friday to elect a new parliament in a vote proclaimed by the authorities as historic but one that opposition groups describe as more of the same old polls in which elected governments are subservient to an all-powerful monarch.

The legislative elections, the second of the Arab Spring uprisings after Tunisia's polls last month, came almost five months after reforms in the constitution were approved in a popular referendum on July 1.

The new constitution sees the prime minister as head of the government and grants an elected cabinet more powers to be able to deliver on its promises. However, the reforms preserve most of the powers in the hands of the king.

Although the government says 98 percent of voters were in favor of the reforms, opposition groups under the umbrella of the February 20 movement have continued to protest across dozens of cities in the kingdom demanding concrete political changes.

Unlike in Tunisia - where the winning party mattered the most - in Morocco, voter turnout has been the focus of public and media attention. Authorities have placed a bet on high turnout to pull the rag from under the feet of opposition groups and cast legitimacy on the constitutional reforms.

Opposition groups, which have led an unprecedented boycott campaign in the history of Morocco’s elections, are counting on low turnout and voting irregularities to deal a blow to the regime’s self-proclaimed reform plans.

More than 30 parties, with blurry ideological difference, are taking part in the elections and no single party is expected to win a landslide majority enough to form the government alone. It is all but certain that a coalition government of several parties will emerge from the elections, with the Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party (PJD) tipped to win the largest number of seats.

PJD chief Abdel Ilah Bin Kiran said in an interview with Al Arabiya that the legislative elections were a “test for the Moroccan government and its future” adding his party’s decision to participate in the election was for the country's supreme national interest. He warned, however, that any irregularities could change the party’s decisions.

Another PJD leader, Lahsen Daoudi, recently warned, “We will all be the February 20 movement” if the elections are rigged.

In a statement issued on Wednesday, the movement called on political parties and civil society groups to join its ranks and not follow “the illusion of change” promised by the king.

“Morocco's political system continues to polish its image with a granted new constitution that was passed on July 1 and with organizing legislative elections on Nov. 25, promising to reproduce the same old legacy experienced by the Moroccan people during the Years of Lead,” the movement said.

The Years of Lead refers to a period between the 1960s and 1980s which was marked by state violence against opposition figures and groups.

“Our strong determination and conscious citizenship increases our conviction that the conditions cannot continue as they are and that the legitimacy of our demands will eventually end the reality of corruption and tyranny,” the movement added, promising to step up protest after the elections.

But it remains to be seen if a large electorate will answer the movement’s call for boycott amid intensive government media campaign urging people to go the polls. Telecommunication companies have sent text messages to people urging them to vote and political parties were instructed to call for heavy turnout.

In statements to popular Moroccan online publication, Hespress, Moroccan political analyst Abdel-Rahim al-Manar Slimi said the movement’s call for boycott could be counterproductive as it could provoke indifferent people to go vote.