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ANALYSIS: Why will Iran not turn into another Syria

Iranian worshippers chant slogans during the Friday prayer ceremony in Tehran on Jan. 5, 2018. (AP)

The uprising of the Iranian people in over 130 cities has raised many questions and concerns. Some people opine that Iran may turn into another Syria.

As mentioned in my earlier article, the greatest weakness of the regime in Iran is the erosion of its legitimacy in the wake of profound and widely pervasive social crises.

The Iranian regime is sustained by repression and the export of homegrown terrorism to the Middle East. Hence, the rhetoric of force and decisiveness is more effective than diplomacy of appeasement in dealing with the Iranian regime.

However, the fear that Iran may become another Syria appears far-fetched. This view benefits those who employ the diplomacy of appeasement for the sake of the regime’s longevity, as the overthrow of such an illegitimate regime from within the country seems inevitable!

Why Iran cannot become another Syria?

First of all, the main cause of instability and crises in the Middle East – particularly in Syria – is the Iranian regime itself, along with the strategy of appeasement employed to protect this repressive regime.

The Iranian regime boasts how Syria and Lebanon constitute the Islamic Republic's “strategic depth,” and if the regime-backed militants do not fight in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon, then according to the regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei says they shall be forced to “fight the enemy in the streets of Tehran and Kermanshah”.

Presently, this regime is facing a popular rebellion in Tehran, Kermanshah, Ahvaz, Isfahan, Shiraz, and many other cities, towns and villages across the country. The slogan of “Sayyid Ali (Khamenei) shame on you, let go of the country,” certainly provides a crystal clear understanding of the crisis. So how is it possible that Iran will turn into another Syria!

Progressive opposition

Secondly, fundamentalism is a threat for those Muslim countries that have no national and progressive opposition. During the anti-monarchist revolution, the Shah’s regime suppressed the progressive groups which created a vacuum that was exploited by fundamentalism led by Khomeini, which subsequently spread to the whole region. Having experienced that repressive extremist regime, Iranians are willing to bury fundamentalism in the grave forever.

Thirdly, the Iranian uprising from Kurdistan to Baluchistan, Khorasan, Azerbaijan, Gilan, Isfahan, Khuzestan, Shiraz, and Lorestan, is pursuing a common goal of overthrowing the ruling regime in Iran, the regime of Velayat-e- Faqih (Guardianship of the Jurist).

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Fourth, unlike other countries with no strong, progressive and organized opposition movement, in Iran such opposition exists. Lastly, Iran with its ancient history, civilization and culture, national and multi religious society has never been involved in a civil war.

Historically, this land had been involved in wars against foreign occupation or autocratic and dictatorial governments. The current revolution is the third revolution in Iran’s hundred year history of seeking freedom, which will undoubtedly achieve liberation, democracy and the rule of law.

People protest near the university of Tehran on December 30, 2017 in this picture obtained from social media. (Reuters)

Hallmarks of national insurrection

The current uprising started with slogans against corruption and price rise, but it quickly stood up against the whole political system that shocked the regime at its roots.

This is not a sporadic rebellion, but an uprising that is systematically coordinated and employs wisely developed strategy against the enemy’s goals and methods. People are willing to sacrifice to bring down the whole system of Velayat-e-Faqih, with all of its apparatus and mechanisms of deception and oppression.

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Unlike the protests in 2009 which were driven by fake reformists, this uprising blazons the slogan “the reformist versus hardliner game is over.” The reformist myth was a big political lie in that it suggested that reforms within the Velayat-e-Faqih system were possible.

Additionally, the current demonstrations are supported by widespread international support. The recent session of the UN Security Council on the request of the United States representative was dedicated to this issue.

In this regard Maryam Rajavi, President of National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), said: “Iran’s protesters and youth, however, have in their very first move have turned a new leaf in the United Nations and Security Council’s history on Iran.

‘If you resist’

This indicates that the young men and women who rose up in the streets of Izeh, Doroud, Tuyserkan, Ghahdarijan, Jouyabad of Isfahan, and 75 other cities can and shall turn over the darkest page of Iran’s history”. Similarly, Iranian Resistance Leader Massoud Rajavi says, “If you persist, the world will stand with you and on your side.”

It is an undeniable fact that the Iranian regime creates instability in the region and that the Iranian uprising against this regime is a major factor toward restoring peace and stability in the region.

ANALYSIS: What Iran’s regime is actually terrified of

The regime cannot wiggle out of this deep social crisis. The Iranian regime has been the core of fundamentalism and terrorism and the cause of much bloodshed in the Middle East and the world. The Iranian people have been struggling not only to save themselves and their homeland, but also to eliminate this great evil.

Therefore, they should be supported through the recognition of the Iranian opposition movement, the NCRI. A range of sanctions should be imposed against the regime, including diplomatic and oil trade embargo, to cut off the sources of finance for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The massive uprisings across different cities of Iran are not the result of foreign interference. The people of Iran are opposed to any foreign interference in their country’s affairs, but they welcome global solidarity for peace, freedom and justice in the most strategic area of the world and rely on their own efforts.

Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not reflect Al Arabiya English's point-of-view.
____________________
F. Mahmoudi is a Kurdish-Iranian political and human rights activist.

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Last Update: Wednesday, 10 January 2018 KSA 14:46 - GMT 11:46
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