MIDDLE EAST

Iran will reluctantly accept Trump’s conditions

The mullahs’ regime in Tehran is anxiously waiting until May 12, the date when the US will declare its official position regarding renewing the nuclear agreement with Iran.

The Europeans, as well as Russia and China, know that if the US withdraws from the nuclear agreement, the Iranian people and the clerical regime will suffer from lean economic years which will immerse their burdened economy with problems that cannot be solved unless via the US commitment to the agreement.

Suffocating economic crisis

The French people represented by their president Emmanuel Macron tried to convince the US president to remain committed to the deal but when he could not, he tried to find a compromise that keeps the agreement in place but adds some supplements that take the White House’s notes into consideration. This is what triggered Iran to say that it rejects any new supplements.

However, those observing Iran’s situation, whether its domestic situation or its expansive commitments on the foreign level, can see that it is going through a suffocating economic crisis that’s similar to its crisis during the Iraqi-Iranian war.

Uranium enrichment will not provide livelihood for the starving Iranian people and will in fact further deteriorate the economy

Mohammed Al Shaikh

At the beginning of this war, which lasted for eight years, the Iranians bid on steadfastness, resistance and defiance but in the end they had to submit to peace with Saddam Hussein and Khomeini unwillingly complied with stopping the war.

Khamenei’s situation today is similar to Khomeini’s situation earlier as Iran’s economic deterioration and decreased capability to meet its financial commitments will only be resolved by forcibly, and not willingly, submitting to Trump’s conditions. Iran’s only bargaining chip to pressure the Western and Eastern world is that of uranium enrichment, which is entirely rejected by the western world, Israel and neighboring Arab countries.

Moreover, uranium enrichment will not provide livelihood for the starving Iranian people and will in fact further deteriorate the economy and its currency – a deterioration which I do not think that the Revolutionary Guards’ oppression can contain.

Yielding to new conditions

That’s why I am certain that the mullahs will acquiesce to the new American conditions against their will, and accept the supplements proposed by the French president and which are related to halting the development of ballistic missiles and to limiting expansion in the region and not supporting terrorism.

However, what we should be well-aware of is that Iran is a religious clerical state that is strange to the orientations and moods of the modern communities. Therefore, it will not abandon its dream to establish the Safavid Republic of Persia– it may temporarily give it up for tactical reasons but once it finds an opportunity, or when there is a democratic president, like the poltroon president Obama, in the White House, it will revive its old agenda.

The Europeans consider Iran as a land of virgin opportunities in terms of investment. This investment attractiveness is what lured European leaders. They are mainly concerned that Iran, due to its current economic situation, will witness wars and conflicts among its components which are made up of different ethnicities, sects and doctrines; thus not giving their companies a chance to invest there.

Whether Iran accepts the new conditions of the amended agreement or not, we must work hard to stir up everything that would domestically distract it from us in a way that keeps this lurking savage monster from harming our security and stability.

This article is also available in Arabic.
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Mohammed Al Shaikh is a Saudi writer with al-Jazirah newspaper. He tweets @alshaikhmhmd.

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Last Update: Friday, 4 May 2018 KSA 12:16 - GMT 09:16
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not reflect Al Arabiya English's point-of-view.
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