It seems the Americans are serious about uprooting the Vilayat-e Faqih regime in Iran but the question most international political circles are asking is: How will the scenario unfold?
The most likely scenario is the Revolutionary Guards’ coup on the Iranian political scene and pushing the mullahs to the backseat. Those who control the security situation in most Iranian provinces are the cadres of the Revolutionary Guards who stay out of sight behind the supreme leaders’ turban. If the economic and security situation further escalates, many think the Revolutionary Guards’ generals will themselves take over power and directly govern without hesitation.
Iran will become a state with a purely military regime as I don’t think the Revolutionary Guards Corps and its generals will give up power and the domination over political and economic decisions no matter what the consequences are.
The second scenario is that the economic sanctions which the US will impose and the collapse of the currency will lead to a civil war and Iran will thus disintegrate into several ethnic and sectarian statelets like what happened in Yugoslavia. What’s certain is that the mullahs via their current policy, especially after the US withdrew from the nuclear deal and threatened to punish companies that deal with the Iranian regime, will suffocate Iran. It doesn’t seem that the mullahs’ government will rationally deal with its dangerous economic situation. This means breakup then collapse is around the corner.
The fall of the Iranian mullahs’ sectarian and expansive policies will change the region’s situation drastically, and it seems the Americans are also convinced of this.Mohammed Al Shaikh