As Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s health waivers, the central government’s control over the periphery appears increasingly weak, a news report has claimed.
According to the National Interest report, there are ample signs that Iranian security forces are beginning to lose their grip. The report cites the history of political protests in the country and also lists the various uprisings over the years.
“Not only do the economic protests which began nearly a year ago continue sporadically, but in recent months, terrorists and insurgents have grown increasingly bold along Iran’s periphery,” the report says.
Filling the void
The report claims that the vacuum which follows the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will likely mean a number of simultaneous and indigenous uprisings.
“While the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will remain on paper a formidable force, with the regime’s leadership vacant and its commander-in-chief functions absent, it will likely be faced with simultaneous indigenous uprisings and insurgencies in Khuzistan, Kurdistan and Baluchistan,” says the report.
According to the report, it is unclear how effective the IRGC could be under these circumstances. “The US intelligence community has two major blind spots with regard to the IRGC. The first is its factional divisions. The second concerns individual units,” says the report.