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US Elections: Biden’s chances of winning hit record 82.8 pct, forecasting model shows

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Joe Biden’s chances of winning the Electoral College rose to a record high 82.8 percent, according to the latest run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model, from 82.3 percent on October 6.

He is predicted to win 352 of 538 electoral votes.

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The model estimated Donald Trump’s chances at 16.7 percent, down from 17.2 percent on October 6.

According to the October 7 run of the model, Trump had a 7.5 percent chance of carrying the popular vote, compared with Biden’s 92.5 percent.

The national polling average for Trump reached 42.5 percent on October 7, unchanged from October 6.

Biden’s national polling average reached 51.3 percent on October 7, the same as on October 6.

FiveThirtyEight rates pollsters according to their historical accuracy. For the purposes of this story, the lowest possible rating for a major poll is B-.

In 2016, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote but missed with its Electoral College forecast.

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