US elections

Betting market flips on US election, favors Trump over Biden

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Betting market odds on the US presidential election have flipped to favor Republican President Donald Trump over Democratic candidate Joe Biden, according to data from three aggregators.

New Zealand-based predictions market PredictIt has Trump leading Biden at 62 cents-to-37 cents, from being 61 cents-to-44 cents in favor of the Democratic candidate on November 2.

PredictIt’s website underwent an outage earlier, with the predictions market posting on Twitter that it was working to “bring service back as soon as possible,” without saying exactly why it had gone down.

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Meanwhile, bettors on British betting exchange Betfair are giving Trump a 75 percent chance of winning a second term in the White House, up from 39 percent when polls opened on Tuesday morning. Biden’s odds of a win on Betfair have fallen to 25 percent from 61 percent earlier.

“Trump has overtaken Biden significantly and is now in pole position, suggesting it could be a very nervous night ahead for Biden,” Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said.

Britain-based Smarkets exchange is giving Trump 55 percent win odds, up from 39 percent when polls opened. Bets on Trump went up to 80 percent at 2300 Eastern Time (0300 GMT), before dropping back.

Biden’s win odds on Smarkets have fallen to 45 percent from 61 percent earlier.

“This has mainly been driven by Trump seemingly holding the key swing state of Florida as a result of a very strong showing for him in the Miami-Dade county with a large Cuban population,” said Patrick Flynn, political analyst at Smarkets.

Flynn said that Florida wasn’t a “must win” state for Biden as it was for Trump.

“Biden could yet put those crucial Midwestern states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in his column, and he would win the election.”

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