As Turkey’s polls close and tallying begins, here are the main possible outcomes

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Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections’ polls closed on Sunday and vote tallying began in a tight race that may unseat President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and end his reign in power which spanned two decades.

Scenario 1: Erdogan achieves a decisive win.


The vote tally shows that Erdogan is the clear victor, making this the latest triumph in a streak of winning every election he took a part in his political career.

This also secures Erdogan a third term as president of Turkey, an unprecedented feat. Should such a scenario unfold, analysts anticipate more consolidation of power and further erosion of democratic institutions in the country.

Scenario 2: Opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu achieves a decisive win.

The vote tally shows that Kilicdaroglu is the clear victor, leaving no room for Erdogan to contest the result and is therefore forced to concede.

Kilicdaroglu, with the backing of opposition parties, have set out a framework of goals which included: quashing many of Erdogan’s main policies, reviving democracy in the country, reinstating the parliamentary system, abolishing the executive presidency, and overturning unorthodox economic policies.

Scenario 3: Either one of the two main candidates wins but with a small margin.

Should Kilicdaroglu win with a slim margin, analysts anticipate that Erdogan may not concede and would instead contest the result and call on his supporters to rally on his behalf, leading to chaos and turmoil to ensue in the country.

Scenario 4: Neither of the two main candidates is the clear winner during this round.

In that case, a second round of voting will be held two weeks later to determine the final result.

Read more:

Turkey’s initial vote results show Erdogan leading ahead of opposition’s Kilicdaroglu

Turkey at a crossroads: Sultan vs democrat election puts country’s future on the line

After 20 years in power, will 2023 end the reign of Turkey’s ‘sultan’ Erdogan?

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