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I wrote last week about the study of the Saudi researcher Nawaf Obeid on the “evil” surrounding Arab Spring countries, which was published by the Belfer Center for Sciences and International Affairs at Harvard University where Obeid works. I chose and discussed his study because it expresses the concerns of many who are worried about the Spring; some are worried that the confusion experienced by the Spring countries will lead to the loss of yet another opportunity for an Arab renaissance, while others prefer to perceive the “failure” in the Spring’s repercussions, because they believe that it threatens their interests.

The main idea of Nawaf Obeid’s study that he called “Hot Arab summer,” is that the “optimism over the Arab awakening revolutions must be measured through the negativity of the political situations that can disappoint the regimes of the national states in a way that does not get along with the awakening of a new Arab world.” Therefore, his study revolves around what he called an “evil” surrounding various Arab countries, which are actually suffering from severe difficulties on the security level like (Syria), and other difficulties threatening their identity like in (Iraq), while other countries are suffering from absurd political plots like (Egypt). Some believe that this “evil” is just a difficult thorn that mature revolutions have to face. But let us examine the “evil” forms surrounding the various Arab countries in order to analyze and avoid it.

Analyzing evil

Yemen failed to be united under one national state and under the equality of all its citizens, and therefore it experienced a revolution. Perhaps, when Yemen’s establishment cycle will be complete, according to the Gulf Cooperation Council plan, Yemenis will be able to freely search for another formula that will unite them, like federalism for example, specifically for the southern Yemeni people. But there are particular identities in the south that do not match with the others in the south. For instance, Hadramaut is not like Aden, but no one wants to open these critical files, because everyone knows that “the South Yemen Movement” is against the deterioration of the situation and the dominance of Ali Abdullah Saleh. Yet, there are plenty of identities in the South.

It is good for Mr. Obeid to point out in his study that the Houthis revolution in the “northern north” along with the separatists, are generated by the old Yemeni regime who had always distinguished between regions, tribes and individuals. This is why Obeid did not rule out the option at the end of his study on Yemen, that “there is a strong possibility for Yemen to be divided into three provinces at the end of the decade.” Once again, I repeat that this is the reason why the Yemeni revolution erupted, to build a new Yemen; the division in Yemen should not be catastrophic in case it happened in light of a popular consensus. The borders in democratic countries (democracy is the main axis for the modern Arab revolutions) are not pure evil, especially among countries that are economically identical, because they will rely on the market economy and freedom of movement, like Sudan for example, that was relieved from decades-long civil war when it split into north and south. While Obeid –and many others like him – consider it as evidence to the state’s failure, it is possible to perceive it as the beginning of the two states’ success.

Sudanese strength, Syrian weakness

Southern and Northern Sudanese are now convinced that they need each other. This is strengthened every day and it seemed obvious when President Omar al-Bashir visited the capital of South Sudan two weeks ago, ending months of continued tension between the two countries after Sudan's north-south divisions.

Moreover, Obeid – among many others – has voiced stern ideas regarding Syria. Last week, I attended a lecture delivered by a Syrian researcher who believes that “the Syria we know has ended”, but it is important to mention that history usually witnesses continuous changes; what is now happening in Damascus, despite its extreme severity and pain, is just an image of the agitated temporary changes.

Obeid says: “In the end, the Assad regime will collapse and the state’s functions will disappear”, adding “the Syrian state is crumbling in a way that cannot be fixed again’”. Then, he anticipates another pessimist expectation: “The potentials of the new Syrian state will be too weak to regain control of the north, where Kurds represent 10 to 15% of the population, and have always felt that they were marginalized; they have largely completed the establishment of their own government.

I prefer to see these expectations as warnings rather than inevitable facts. Despite their wickedness, Sykes-Picot borders lasted for decades, and re-drawing them will stir endless turbulence. Moreover, Syria is not an isolated island; there are two other countries that do not want to be surprised by the minorities, provinces, races and communities issues, namely Saudi Arabia and Turkey. They will strongly stand against any Kurdish, Alawite, Iranian or Israeli adventure that would lead to the redrawing of the borders of the Fertile Crescent region.

The cautioning and pessimistic ideas are spread throughout the study about Egypt, Iraq, Sudan, Bahrain and other countries, but history is based on the past as well, and is affected by the three strong countries that search for their most important interests: Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey. Fortunately, they encourage stability and wisdom, and therefore they can end the potential chaos based on the deteriorating reality that can be stimulated and endorsed by two important forces in the region, namely Israel and Iran, and that’s another story.

This article was first published in al-Hayat on April 20, 2013.

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Jamal Khashoggi is a Saudi journalist, columnist, author, and general manager of the upcoming Al Arab News Channel. He previously served as a media aide to Prince Turki al Faisal while he was Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the United States. Khashoggi has written for various daily and weekly Arab newspapers, including Asharq al-Awsat, al-Majalla and al-Hayat, and was editor-in-chief of the Saudi-based al-Watan. He was a foreign correspondent in Afghanistan, Algeria, Kuwait, Sudan, and other Middle Eastern countries. He is also a political commentator for Saudi-based and international news channels. Khashoggi can be found on Twitter: @JKhashoggi