Arab Spring economies to recover slowly in 2013 IMF

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Libya, which ousted its dictator Muammer Qaddafi last year, is a spectacular exception to the pattern of slow recovery because of its oil wealth. Oil output is returning to its pre-civil war level faster than expected.

The country’s GDP shrank 60 percent last year but is expected to rise 122 percent this year, 17 percent in 2013 and 7 percent annually on average between 2014 and 2017, assuming the domestic security situation improves, the IMF predicted.

It forecast Libya would run a huge state budget surplus of 19 percent of GDP in 2012, and a current account surplus of 22 percent.

Inflation shot up to 16 percent last year because of the civil war’s damage to factories and transport systems, but it is likely to fall to 10 percent this year as business becomes more normal and drop to just 1 percent in 2013, the IMF said.

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