In its twice-yearly outlook for the Middle East and North Africa, the global lender said a partial return of political stability could permit somewhat faster growth in the combined output of Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen during 2013.
But weak demand in Europe and other regions will weigh on the Arab Spring states, it said. In many of those countries, exports are shrinking and have not yet bottomed out, it added.
“Growth is expected to remain below long-term trends, and unemployment is expected to increase owing to continued anemic external demand, high food and fuel commodity prices, regional tensions and policy uncertainty.”
The IMF forecast gross domestic product in the countries excluding Libya would expand by 3.6 percent next year, accelerating from an estimated 2.0 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2011. In 2010, the year before the uprisings, GDP grew 4.7 percent.
Because of sluggish global demand, the group’s current account balance of trade in goods and services will improve only marginally next year, to a deficit of 4.6 percent of GDP from this year’s 5.4 percent deficit, the IMF predicted.
It suggested some countries should consider allowing greater flexibility in their exchange rates - code for permitting their currencies to depreciate - in order to stimulate exports, but did not specify which countries.
Weaker currencies could fuel inflation, which the IMF forecast would rise to 8.6 percent for the group next year, the highest level since 2008, from 7.8 percent this year.
Inflation is expected to rise in Egypt and Morocco as they try to curb their large budget deficits by scaling back food and fuel subsidies, the IMF said.
Libya, which ousted its dictator Muammer Qaddafi last year, is a spectacular exception to the pattern of slow recovery because of its oil wealth. Oil output is returning to its pre-civil war level faster than expected.
The country’s GDP shrank 60 percent last year but is expected to rise 122 percent this year, 17 percent in 2013 and 7 percent annually on average between 2014 and 2017, assuming the domestic security situation improves, the IMF predicted.
It forecast Libya would run a huge state budget surplus of 19 percent of GDP in 2012, and a current account surplus of 22 percent.
Inflation shot up to 16 percent last year because of the civil war’s damage to factories and transport systems, but it is likely to fall to 10 percent this year as business becomes more normal and drop to just 1 percent in 2013, the IMF said.