Trump victory shocks global firms reliant on open trade
Experts remain unclear about how his stance on protectionist trade measures, tough immigration controls will translate into policy
Donald Trump’s victory in the US election sent shockwaves through industries that rely on open trade, from airlines to cars and IT outsourcing, even though many executives remain unsure what his protectionist rhetoric will mean in practice.
Throughout his presidential campaign, Trump has vowed to revive the US economy by slashing taxes, preventing companies from making products overseas, renegotiating trade accords and imposing tariffs on imports from countries like China.
“People are in shock. It seems commentators misread the mood of the country,” said veteran US aerospace consultant Jerrold Lundquist, managing director of The Lundquist Group.
In Asia, shares in airlines with significant exposure to global trade, such as cargo giant Korean Airlines, fell as much as 5 percent as Trump closed in on the White House. Air China's Hong Kong-listed shares tumbled to their lowest level since June, and automakers like Toyota, for whom the United States is a top market, fell 6.5 percent.
International trips make up 64 percent of global air traffic, according to IATA.
Executives at US auto companies said they were concerned about Trump’s stance on free trade, especially his tough talk on the North American Free Trade Agreement. They all have production sites in Mexico.
But industry executives and analysts said aviation had a history of riding out economic and political shocks. On average, plane makers insist, air traffic doubles every 15 years.
“If there are brakes on trade, there could be some impact on international travel. But you have seen more or less 5 percent annual growth in traffic for decades,” Lundquist said.
And the defense industry could benefit, as a Trump administration spends more on the military and encourages even allies to shoulder more of the security cost. Defence stocks, including listed land mine manufacturer Ishikawa Seisaku, jumped.
After a bitter election campaign, trade experts said it remained unclear how Trump's statements in favor of
protectionist trade measures and tough immigration controls would translate into policy.
Tighter rules could impact Indian IT services firms supporting companies in the United States. Shares in companies like Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services were sharply down as Trump closed in on the White House.
But Narayana Murthy, co-founder of Infosys and a key figure in India's outsourcing industry, said realism would prevail.
“They may fine tune it here and there, but let's remember that he is the president of 300 million US people and I'm sure he'll do what is in the best interest of America. And what is in the best interest of America is for its corporations to succeed, for its corporations to create more jobs,” he said.
For now, acquisitions at least will cool off, especially Chinese purchases of US companies, as a Trump presidency pushes up regulatory scrutiny.
“If he now requires a certain percentage of manufacturing parts to be made in America, it's going to be protectionist... and that increases the risk and cost of doing business,” said Stephanie Yuen, an M&A lawyer in Singapore.
“He's not just building a Mexican wall, he builds an economic wall around America.”
And for key sectors, competition will heat up. Europe's Airbus and US rival Boeing in the $100 billion annual jet market could become even fiercer with more government lobbying support, adding stridency to efforts to compete for jobs.
Trump's victory may also raise questions over plans to sell over 200 Western airplanes to Iran under a deal to lift sanctions that the president-elect has severely criticized.
Airbus is seen close to finalizing a tranche of 17 jets, but needs US approval to complete plans for another 80 or so because the jets are built with many US parts.
Boeing has US approval to finalize a deal for some 100 jets but Middle East sources say progress has been slow so far.
“It further reduces the prospect of the deals going ahead,” Aboulafia said.
Trump advisors vow growth
Donald Trump’s economic advisor Peter Navarro on Wednesday sought to reassure the markets, saying the Republican president-elect would help boost economic growth once in the White House, aided by a Republican-controlled Congress.
Speaking on CNBC, Navarro also did not rule out serving in a Trump administration, adding: “There will be a lot of people with private sector experience.”
Separately, Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway told CNBC the market’s reaction was due to Trump's surprise victory. She added that he would act quickly in conjunction with the Republican-led Congress to implement his plans, including lifting numerous US regulations.
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