Turkish industrial production declines 7.5 pct in December, poll shows

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Turkish industrial output is expected to fall 7.5 percent year-on-year on a calendar-adjusted basis in December, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, in what would be the fourth consecutive month of declines as the economy slows sharply.

In November, industrial production fell 6.5 percent year-on-year and was down 0.3 percent month-on-month.

The data is expected to give economists a clearer idea about expectations for 2018 gross domestic product data, scheduled for release on March 11.

“Industrial production, PMI, sectoral data, virtually all leading indicators points to a slowdown in economic activity,” said GCM Investment economist Enver Erkan.

Forecasts from nine institutions for the contraction in industrial output ranged between 4 and 8.4 percent.

The Turkish Statistical Institute will release the industrial production data on Feb. 14.

“We expect a contraction in the economy in the final quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of this year,” Erkan said, adding that exports and production were expected to be hit by a slowing trend in European economies, including Germany.

He forecast an adjusted 7.5 percent decline in production in December and an unadjusted contraction of more than 5 percent.

Turkish GDP growth shrank to 1.6 percent year-on-year in the third quarter as a currency crisis and soaring inflation led to the worst economic performance in two years.