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Oil prices rise after Saudi minister urges caution on market at OPEC+ meet

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Oil prices rose more than $1 per barrel on Thursday after Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman urged caution and vigilance at the beginning of a meeting of OPEC ministers and their allies about the future of supply cuts.

Brent crude futures were up $1.11, or 1.7 percent, at $65.18 a barrel by 1347 GMT while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.07, or 1.8 percent to $62.35.

Ministers from OPEC members and their allies started a meeting to discuss the future of an oil output cut at 1300 GMT.

Analysts and traders say a four-month price rally from below $40 a barrel is now out of step with demand and that physical sales are not expected to match supply until later in 2021.

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But with prices above $60, some analysts have predicted OPEC+ producers will increase output by about 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) and expect Saudi Arabia to at least partially end its voluntary reduction of 1 million bpd.

Three OPEC+ sources on Wednesday said some members believe that output should remain unchanged and that it was not immediately clear whether Saudi Arabia would end its voluntary cuts or extend them.

“The market ... can take back at least 500,000 bpd (excluding Saudi’s extra cuts) from April and even more in following months, in line with the recovery we expect in oil demand,” said Rystad’s head of oil markets, Bjornar Tonhaugen.

“Some mild negative price reaction will take place, though, if the decision is to increase output. Such a development would prevent some steep stock draws that had been priced in for a while for coming months.”

In the United States, despite a record surge of more than 21 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles last week, gasoline stocks fell by the most in 30 years as refining plunged to a record low because of the Texas freeze.

Read more:

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Saudi Aramco chief expects global oil demand recovery during second half of 2021

OPEC+ considering rolling over output cuts into April, say sources