Research predicts ‘end date’ of coronavirus crisis in US, UK, Italy, France, Spain
A research project by Singapore University of Technology and Design used data-based estimations to create models which show the coronavirus life-cycle in specific countries, and estimated an “end date” for the COVID-19 outbreak globally and in specific countries, including the US, UK, Italy, France, Spain, Germany, India and Turkey.
The research uses the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model which describes the spread of infectious diseases and data of coronavirus cases as of May 7.
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The SIR model uses three differential equations to describe the dynamic flow of people between three categories: S for the number of people ‘susceptible’ to infection, I for the number of infectious people, and R for the number of removed people (either recovered or died) in the population.
The SIR model incorporates two main parameters, beta and gamma. Gamma is the number of days a person is contagious and is a property of the virus. Beta is the average number of people infected due to coming in contact with a previously infected person and is related not only to the interaction patterns of people in a society (which social distancing can influence) but also the infection process properties of the virus.
The model shows a bell-shape curve where the left most end of the curve’s tail represents the first confirmed case of coronavirus in a country, the right most end of the curve’s tail represents the last predicted case of infection, the inflection point or the peak in the bell-shape curve represents the highest number of cases after which the rate of infection begins to slow down, and the area under the entire curve which represents the total predicted number of people who will have contracted the virus.
The research predicts that the coronavirus “end date” in the world will be on January 5, 2021.
It also predicted theoretical “end dates” for the coronavirus outbreak in the following countries:
United States: October 22, 2020.
United Kingdom: September 30, 2020.
Italy: October 23, 2020.
France: August 25, 2020.
Spain: August 15, 2020.
Germany: August 20, 2020.
India: October 19, 2020.
Turkey: September 11, 2020.
The research paper stressed that the predictions are uncertain and subject to change depending on real-world developments such as government policies, testing protocols and human behaviors.