A protective mask, which is widely used as a preventive measure against the coronavirus (COVID-19), is pictured on a table world globe in this illustration taken March 17, 2020. (Reuters)

Study predicts coronavirus ‘hidden period’, end date in US, UK, Italy, Spain, France

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Tuqa Khalid, Al Arabiya English

Published: 17 May ,2020: 03:05 AM GST Updated: 13 November ,2020: 10:53 AM GST

A study by a Ukrainian professor predicted that the coronavirus pandemic will end no earlier than March 2021 and that the COVID-19 virus will infect more than five million people.

His study also used a model to predict the dynamics of the coronavirus outbreaks in US, UK, South Korea, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Austria, Moldova, and Ukraine.

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He based his study on the SIR model for an infectious disease, which relates the number of susceptible people “S” (individuals who can be infected), the number of infected people “I” (individuals who are sick and spread the infection) and the number of removed people “R” (individuals who no longer spread the virus, which is the total sum of people isolated, recovered, deceased, and infected people who left the region).

He used official coronavirus statistics for the period April 9-29 and predicted the “hidden period”, the time between the estimated beginning of the outbreak and the first case of infection was officially reported, the date of the last day of the outbreak and the estimated final number of COVID-19 cases.

Here are his predictions:

US: The coronavirus could have remained hidden in the country for 55 days. The outbreak is expected to end on September 23, 2020. The number of COVID-19 cases is expected to reach at least 1,481,153.

Germany: The coronavirus could have remained hidden in the country for 48 days. The outbreak is expected to end on August 4, 2020. The number of COVID-19 cases is expected to reach at least 176,952.

UK: The coronavirus could have remained hidden in the country for 25 days. The outbreak is expected to end on August 20, 2020. The number of COVID-19 cases is expected to reach at least 214,899.

South Korea: The coronavirus could have remained hidden in the country for 23 days. The outbreak is expected to end on June 29, 2020. The number of COVID-19 cases is expected to reach at least 10,842.

Italy: The coronavirus could have remained hidden in the country for 65 days. The outbreak is expected to end on August 18, 2020. The number of COVID-19 cases is expected to reach at least 225,736.

Spain: The coronavirus could have remained hidden in the country for 22 days. The outbreak is expected to end on July 6, 2020. The number of COVID-19 cases is expected to reach at least 221,011.

France: The coronavirus was not “hidden” in the country. The outbreak is expected to end on June 20, 2020. The number of COVID-19 cases is expected to reach at least 129,823.

Austria: The coronavirus could have remained hidden in the country for 19 days. The outbreak is expected to end on May 19, 2020. The number of COVID-19 cases is expected to reach at least 15,108.

Moldova: The coronavirus could have remained hidden in the country for 10 days. The outbreak is expected to end on June 15, 2020. The number of COVID-19 cases is expected to reach at least 3,541.

Ukraine: The coronavirus could have remained hidden in the country for 15 days. The outbreak is expected to end on July 26, 2020. The number of COVID-19 cases is expected to reach at least 15,273.

The researcher said: “This long-term prediction is very preliminary, corresponds to the current situation and does not take into account the repeating outbreaks that are possible and are already happening in many countries.”

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