Lebanon tension, big drop in US crude stocks lift oil prices to five-month high

Oil climbed to the highest level since early March on Wednesday after an explosion at Lebanon’s main port rocked the capital Beirut, stoking fears over instability in the region.

“Tensions are high and that just kind of puts a fine point on it,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC. “Looks like there’s going to be a draw in crude oil again, so we got that support as well.”

Lebanon is reeling under its worst financial and economic crisis, with a sharp plunge in its local currency eroding purchasing power and throwing many into poverty and unemployment.

Analysts attributed the price rise mainly on a drop in US crude inventories and the weak dollar, but mounting coronavirus infections also weighed on the demand outlook.

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“We’re starting to see a trend emerge of diminishing crude oil stocks in the United States,” said Tom Finlon of GF International. “What this may mean is that OPEC+ has an emerging capability to perhaps accurately regulate the production of crude and link it to demand.”

Brent crude was up $1.50, or 3.4 percent, at $45.93 a barrel by 1345 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate oil rose $1.51, or 3.6 percent, to $43.21 a barrel.

Both contracts gained over 4 percent earlier in the session.

US crude inventories fell by 8.6 million barrels in the week to August 1 to 520 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations for a 3 million barrel drop, the American Petroleum Institute found.

Official figures are due on Wednesday.

A weaker dollar, which makes oil cheaper for holders of foreign currencies, also supported prices.

“There’s no escaping the benefits of a weaker dollar in the commodity space and oil is certainly basking in its decline,” senior OANDA analyst Craig Erlam said.

Sentiment also drew support from signs that talks between Democrats in Congress and the White House on a new coronavirus relief package are making progress, although the sides remain far apart.

US factory data this week also showed an improvement in orders, which some analysts took as a hint of economic recovery.

Euro zone business activity returned to modest growth in July as some curbs imposed to stop the spread of the coronavirus eased, the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index from IHS Markit showed on Wednesday.

Rising prices come against the backdrop of a surge in coronavirus cases which could threaten a recovery in fuel demand.

Global coronavirus deaths surpassed 700,000 on Wednesday, according to a Reuters tally, with the United States, Brazil, India and Mexico leading the rise in fatalities.

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“We see gasoline demand coming in close to 7 percent year-on-year lower through Q3, with gasoil/diesel registering a decline of some 4 percent, implying a continued slowdown of the recovery, with a global return to 2019 levels this year increasingly in doubt,” JBC Energy said.

The consultancy sees jet fuel demand down 50 percent year on year lower through the third quarter.