The US’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran is an important development that will have possible political consequences and transformations in the region and on the players, the arena and the crisis. The new developments are dependent on the continuity of the American stance against Tehran and which may change if the Iranian government makes concessions to the US. President Donald Trump had promised Iran to go back to the agreement if it backs down and accepts his conditions to amend the deal. These amendments include prohibiting Iran from ever transforming its nuclear program into a military program and withdrawing its forces and militias from the wars outside Iran. It’s unlikely that Rowhani’s government will accept these conditions during this current phase.
When sanctions are activated and pressure is increased on Iran, Israel will have a new regional role that it has never played before. Israel’s activities regarding its foreign security have been limited to wars and confrontations with neighboring countries. It’s probable that Israel will play a new role, the role of the policeman that’s watching and holding Iran accountable. On one hand, it launched significant military operations against Iranian sites in Syria and it said it completely destroyed the infrastructure which the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have built there. If we assume that half of this estimate is accurate, then Israel will have diminished Iran’s power for the first time since it got involved in the war in Syria around five years ago.
Israel has frankly said it intends to eliminate Iran’s presence in Syria, and this increases the possibilities of more confrontations that will also be violent. If Israel succeeds in getting Iran and its foreign militias out of Syria then the balance of power between the warring parties will change. Who will compensate for Iran? Will the Russians intensify their presence? Will Arab forces, mostly Egyptians, replace the Iranian ones or will a political solution sponsored by the UN and supervised by UN peacekeeping troops be enough?
نستخدم ملفات الكوكيز لنسهل عليك استخدام مواقعنا الإلكترونية ونكيف المحتوى والإعلانات وفقا لمتطلباتك واحتياجاتك الخاصة، لتوفير ميزات وسائل التواصل الاجتماعية ولتحليل حركة المرور لدينا...اعرف أكثر