It is not important to hold the Geneva Conference 2. What is more important is the context in which the conference will be held. The conference’s results will specify Syria’s future that lingers between two options. The first option is to continue the war launched by the regime against its people. Such a scenario will eventually lead to Syria’s disintegration. The second option is to find a formula for a political solution in which Bashar al-Assad cedes power as soon as possible and in which a transitional government is formed to establish a better future for Syria.
This government must represent all categories of the Syrian people. It must possess all jurisdictions that allow it to lay down the basis of a new Syria linked to what is going on in the region and the world - that is, it must be a democratic Syria where there is a civil society and where elections are held. Not a Syria governed by totalitarian parties like the Brotherhood or like Baath. Such parties transform into a regime governed by one family and which are run by security apparatuses that control all state institutions.
The new Syria
A modern Syria must be a united country that has nothing to do with the governance of security apparatuses or with the alliance of minorities encouraged by Iran, which end up, knowingly or unknowingly, serving Israeli orientations. The second option, that begins with the departure of the regime symbols, represents hope. There is no hope for a united Syria unless the sectarian regime, which in the past 13 years transformed into a family inheritance only concerned with robbing the country and humiliating its people under the slogan of the “resistance,” goes.
“Resistance” is after all the excuse used for more than half a century - that is before the Baath Party seized power in 1963 to protect the regime. The excuse of the “resistance” thus cancelled people’s will and aspirations for a better future.
An Iranian-Russian attempt
What we are currently witnessing is an Iranian-Russian attempt to impose a fait accompli before the Geneva Conference 2 is held. This is all what it’s about. It is the direct introduction of the continuity of the current civil war in Syria.
Will the world just watch what Syria is going through? It all depends on the basis on which the Geneva Conference 2 will be heldKhairallah Khairallah
Clearly speaking, Iran’s and Russia’s first concern is summarized in the insistence to involve Lebanese Party Hezbollah in Syrian battles. Their primary concern is also to increase the arms shipments sent to the Syrian regime so the latter resumes the mission of killing its people.
At a later phase, it seems that Iran will find itself obliged to be more involved in the war in Syria in order to prevent the regime’s exist from Damascus towards the coast.
Departing to the coast is the regime’s last option. It is the option of the non-viable Alawite state linked to the Lebanese Beqaa. This means purging operations will be resorted to along the coast especially in Latakia and along other big non-coastal cities like Homs. There are semi-confirmed reports that Iran has mobilized tens of thousands of fighters to go to Syria. Iran will thus become a mandatory part of the operation defending the Syrian regime and supporting the latter in its war against its people.
What will the world do?
Will the world just watch what Syria is going through? It all depends on the basis on which the Geneva Conference 2 will be held. Will the conference be held whilst the regime is capable of using its air force and of using Hezbollah fighters in order to maintain its grip on certain positions and thus cut aid to the Free Syrian Army?
In this case, there will be an international decision to eliminate a united Syria. What Iran and Russia do not understand, and what Israel understands very well, is that the continuity of the war in Syria mainly means eliminating the country’s unity. Perhaps Russia and Iran understand this more than Israel. And they perhaps understand well that their influence has no future in Syria if the country remains united.
Is there an American collusion in this plan? One can speak of such a collusion when observing the stances of Barack Obama’s administration that draws red lines for the Syrian regime but later cancels them once they are violated. It is nothing more or less than a farce. What the American administration is doing indicates one thing. It indicates the desire to disintegrate Syria under the excuse that the opposition is incapable of uniting and that there is the threat of the “al-Nusra Front.”
Those who facilitated the continuity of war in Syria by failing to impose a no-fly zone and not providing the FSA with advanced weapons are the unannounced major allies of the al-Nusra Front and all other parties resembling it.
Hope in the conference?
The Geneva Conference 2 may represent hope for Syria and the Syrians. It may also represent an epic failure if it is held amidst the current circumstances and if there is an absence of the desire to address what the Iranian-Russian alliance is doing on the ground. It is clear that this alliance’s only aim is destroying Syria. Destroying Syria and eliminating the Syrian entity in its current form is now is the only available chance for them to maintain their influence there.
Again, the question is not whether the Geneva Conference 2 will be held. But in what circumstances and amidst which power balances it will it be held. Will it be held whilst there is someone attempting to revive the dead - that is the current Syrian regime - in order to confirm that Syria is certainly heading towards disintegration? Or will it be held to work towards ending an illegitimate regime that has always stood against the Syrian people’s belonging to the culture of dignity, freedom and life?
Khairallah Khairallah is a Lebanese writer who has previously worked at Lebanon’s Annahar newspaper, he then moved to London and began writing political columns in Arabic language newspapers, including Al-Mustaqbal and Rosa El-Youssef.