Egypt’s June 30 revolution yielded results which repercussions cannot be ignored even if some parties do choose to ignore them. The June 30 revolution did not only topple a government, eliminate an extremist project and end a group that deceived society for 80 years, but it also destroyed the political formula which January 25 attempted to produce but did not hold its ground in front of the Egyptians' public opinion and orientations.
The formula was an alliance established since almost 2005 among leftist parties, groups which consider themselves liberal, a number of parties opposing Mubarak's regime and the Brotherhood. This formula sought to eliminate Mubarak's regime until it succeeded. The same alliance had the desire to eliminate the entire system of the July 1952 governance. But the January 25 circumstances forced both religious and secular groups to accept the presence of the army as a major factor in the new formula. They didn't accept this because of their love for the army but because there was no other alternative.
The formula has its roots as over the duration of the past 60 years, Egypt's arena has resembled a triangle with three sides: the government, the leftist parties and the political Islam movements.
The first of losers from the Brotherhood's oppression, after the Brotherhood themselves, is the leftist movements and what's around them.Abdullah Kamal
Over different phases, the first side used to ally with any of the other two sides to confront the third. But then a unique event happened and the second and third sides allied together against the first one using the help of a fourth party - that is foreign pressures particularly American ones.
The Brotherhood exploited all the benefits of the alliance until they attained power and thought they can destroy the entire triangle so the formula becomes based on one side that includes them and American support. The Brotherhood wanted to topple the other two sides - that of the government and state institutions and that of leftist parties and parties calling for democracy. Greed turned into gluttony, and the lust to grow stronger developed into tyranny until the people, who are the most important and the strongest of factors, got engaged in the formula. The people said their word on June 30 and ended the Brotherhood’s scheme.
The first of losers from the Brotherhood's oppression, after the Brotherhood themselves, is the leftist movements and what's around them. Once again, the leftist movements were forced to be engaged in a path of moving forward to where state institutions, particularly the armed forces, want. This established a fragile and temporary alliance.
The June 30 revolution marked a historical achievement for leftist movements, parties calling for democracy and parties describing themselves as liberals. The achievement was strengthening the social reality of the modern civilian project of the Egyptian state and confirming the rejection of religious governance. But these parties, particularly those which enjoyed a momentum on January 25, suffered from frustration even while controlling a government that runs Egypt during the transitional phase of the roadmap.
Leftist parties are among the first of those who know that taking over the executive role of the formula does not have political and social support. They also know that they came first on the scene due to urgent reasons that do not reflect the real revolutionary change in society and that the new reality is based on other bigger and more influential social parties that really reject leftist movements and what's around them. These leftist movements however do enjoy the political wit that keeps the roadmap in its path.
Exposing the truth
And since the time to expose this truth has come as the parliamentary elections' date has neared, this leftist side decided to build an implicit alliance with the Brotherhood. They decided to do so by taking certain measures that exploit their available executive capabilities of to reopen the doors for whatever is left of the Brotherhood and thus allow the latter to return to the arena upon their (the leftists') conditions.
The popular revolution has undermined the Brotherhood's tyranny and toppled their governance. The legal measures taken against them has weakened them on the organizational level. But according to the leftist analysis, the Brotherhood is in the end a power which one can ally with once again after it has been punished. The scenarios of the phase after 2005 and until 2011 will thus repeat and the religious and leftist sides will ally again to confront the state, its army and its wide social backbone represented by traditional parties.
Then there are lectures on how we cannot eliminate the entire Brotherhood from the arena and on how we must settle with punishing those who were involved in crimes in which blood was shed. This is why the minister of social solidarity's decision to delist the Muslim Brotherhood organization has been delayed a lot. This is also the reason behind the spread of statements that the army's popularity has decreased and that the public opinion has been shaken. There are also several attempts aiming to somehow contain the Brotherhood in the political formula.
However, on the practical level, the enormous popular public opinion rejects anything that has to do with the Brotherhood especially that most social categories are aware of the size of the link between the Brotherhood and the terrorist groups in Sinai and across Egypt. Moreover, the people are also aware that most social, political and economic problems are due to the Brotherhood and their behavior and to the latter's rejection of the popular revolutionary decision that led to toppling their governance.
The most important aspect ignored by those who are attempting to bring the Brotherhood into the formula is that the Brotherhood is greatly involved in bloodshed either through directly giving orders to shed blood or through inciting to do so or through participating. It's democratically rejected to eliminate any citizen based on his political affiliation - as long as this affiliation is in accordance with the law - and it's every citizen's right to express his opinion. But the rest of the Brotherhood members support murder and terrorism through protests that exploit this freedom of expression. They also support a group that is judicially banned and even hint at threatening the people by clearly announcing that they aim to obstruct the people's lives and destroy their economy.
This attempt will fail, and no such alliance will be established. These attempts may have pushed Egyptian national movements to categorize the leftist movements and what's around them in the same position as the Brotherhood and its allies. Most importantly is that the Brotherhood - or whatever is left of them - are not ready to seek this alliance. These leftists and those around them will be the first victims of any new empowerment of the Brotherhood which proved, after many years of deceiving many, that it, and no other, is the source of terrorism.
This article was first published on the Egypt-based Mobtada website on Oct. 16, 2013.
Abdullah Kamal is an Egyptian journalist and political analyst and an adviser to al-Rai Kuwaiti newspaper in Cairo. He is currently writing a book about the end of Mubarak era under the title of "The Penultimate Pharaoh." He has been editor-in-chief of both Rose El-Youssef magazine and newspaper (2005–2011) and a member of the Shoura Council (2007 – 2011).