The ‘secret’ agreement on Iran nuclear deal

The nuclear agreement is partially like the Sykes-Picot agreement when it comes to secrecy

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh
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The nuclear agreement is partially like the Sykes-Picot agreement when it comes to secrecy, the untold truth and disingenuity. Those promises made by the Obama administration to people, regarding how the nuclear deal would curb Iran’s nuclear ambition, appear to be illusions.

A secret agreement, obtained by the Associated Press, reveal that Iran’s nuclear deal would not only lift constraints on Iran’s nuclear program after the nuclear deal, but it will also do so before the deal expires as it makes it easier for Iran to achieve its nuclear ambitions.

According to the secret agreement, the deal would pave the way for Iranian leaders to advance their nuclear capabilities at a higher level and even be capable of reducing the break out capacity from one year to six months long before the nuclear agreement ends.

The Obama administration has not made this document public yet. A diplomat who works on Iran’s nuclear program shared the secret document with The Associated Press. He asked for anonymity since he was not allowed to release the documents.

The diplomat who shared the document with the AP described it as an add-on agreement to the nuclear deal. But while formally separate from that accord, he said that it was in effect an integral part of the deal and had been approved both by Iran and the US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany, the six powers that negotiated the deal with Tehran.”

This document suggests that Iran can install thousands of centrifuges, five times more than what it posses currently, as well enrich uranium at much higher pace, long before the agreement expires

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Iran can get what it needs

This document suggests that Iran can install thousands of centrifuges, five times more than what it posses currently, as well enrich uranium at much higher pace, long before the agreement expires.

According to the Associated Press: “Centrifuges churn out uranium to levels that can range from use as reactor fuel and for medical and research purposes to much higher levels for the core of a nuclear warhead. From year 11 to 13, says the document, Iran can install centrifuges up to five times as efficient as the 5,060 machines it is now restricted to using.”

“Those new models will number less than those being used now, ranging between 2,500 and 3,500, depending on their efficiency, according to the document. But because they are more effective, they will allow Iran to enrich at more than twice the rate it is doing now,” says the report.

The Associated Press adds: “The document also allows Iran to greatly expand its work with centrifuges that are even more advanced, including large-scale testing in preparation for the deal's expiry 15 years after its implementation on Jan. 18…. The document is the only secret text linked to last year’s agreement between Iran and six foreign powers. It says that after a period between 11 to 13 years, Iran can replace its 5,060 inefficient centrifuges with up to 3,500 advanced machines. Since those are five times as efficient, the time Iran would need to make a weapon would drop from a year to six months.”

More importantly, this document and the rest of the nuclear agreement still do not explain what are the rules on Iran’s nuclear proliferation after the 13 years are. The only interpretation would be that since there is no restriction indicated, then Iran will be free to do what it desires when it comes to its nuclear program, installing advanced centrifuges, enriching uranium, and obtaining a nuclear bomb.

Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., told reporters at the Republican National Convention “I can just say that it would not be surprising to me at all to see those restrictions in the nuclear deal lifted within 10 years or Iran violating them in the meantime….Remember, we did a similar deal with North Korea and they detonated a nuclear device only 12 years later.”

Sanctions and nuclear reliefs

At the anniversary of the nuclear agreement, July 14th, President Barack Obama pointed out that the nuclear deal has helped in “avoiding further conflict and making us safer.”

The latest developments in the Middle East show that the nuclear agreement has created more tensions, conflicts as it has made Iran’s military more interventionist, and aggressive in the region. The deal has definitely increased the number of conflicts and instabilities in the region. Iran has also become more emboldened in breaking diplomatic and international norms.

However, as usual, the Obama administration is ignoring the new revelation, downplaying it, or dodging any question linked to it. State Department spokesman Mark Toner pointed out in a Monday press briefing that “as to any alleged document, I just can’t speak to it at this point in time.”

The good news for the Iranian government is that it is becoming financially and economically more powerful in the meantime, thanks to the tens of billions of dollars released to Tehran, and thanks to the lifting of four rounds of UN Security Council’s sanctions that allows the Iranian regime and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IEGC) to sell oil and do business freely in the international market.

The secret agreement highlights the fact that significant restraints on Iran’s nuclear program will be lifted before the expiration of the nuclear deal and it would shockingly allow Iran to install more advanced nuclear components than it ever possessed, which would “legally” and much more easily allow Iranian leaders to obtain nuclear weapons if they chose to do so.

Meanwhile, the nuclear deal is helping Iran financially and economically to prepare itself. As some of the Iranian authorities have repeatedly said on the state media outlets – they have not given away anything on the nuclear program, and this appears to be accurate.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, an Iranian-American political scientist and Harvard University scholar, is president of the International American Council. Rafizadeh serves on the board of Harvard International Review at Harvard University. He is also a member of the Gulf project at Columbia University. Rafizadeh served as a senior fellow at Nonviolence International Organization based in Washington DC. He has been a recipient of several scholarships and fellowship including from Oxford University, Annenberg University, University of California Santa Barbara, and Fulbright Teaching program. He served as ambassador for the National Iranian-American Council based in Washington DC, conducted research at Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and taught at University of California Santa Barbara through Fulbright Teaching Scholarship. He can be reached at [email protected], @Dr_Rafizadeh.

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