Trump and his Arab and Iranian rivals

The cheerfulness of media outlets affiliated with Iran, Hezbollah and Islamic groups that support them and of Qatari media outlets over the idea that Trump’s days are numbered is merely wishful thinking as a result of fearing him and failing to confront him.

This does not deny the authenticity and the depth of the crisis the president is going through. However, many analyses are based on wishful thinking and gratification of one’s thirst for revenge. This will negatively impact these governments if these expectations turn out wrong.

We have not forgotten that this is what happened to them after the last US elections as these same outlets asserted that the defeat of Trump’s rival Hillary Clinton was a defeat of Washington’s traditional allies in the region. This was based on Trump’s statements during his electoral campaign. Results have shown that the opposite is true. Trump’s policy is the best thing to happen to Gulf countries in years and it has been a horrible nightmare to Iran.

Among this wishful thinking, the media outlets in the opposing camp gambled that the Trump administration will back down and sell its stances in issues related to the Iran nuclear deal, thwart the Qatar boycott, impose a solution and concessions in the Yemeni war and withdraw from dealing with the Syrian and Iraqi crises. After around two years, however, the result has been the complete opposite.

What about his current crisis? Nothing can be asserted. Most probably Trump will serve the rest of his presidential term and if he doesn’t, it will be for reasons and amid circumstances that are much more serious than we’re hearing and witnessing now.

A long road

The US is a state of institutions and Trump’s opponents cannot get rid of him without long procedures. The US has a presidential system that’s different than the European parliamentary system where the party usually handles getting rid of its head in case things get complicated, like what happened to Margaret Thatcher who although she was one of the greatest British prime ministers, her party ousted her before she finished her third term as premier as a result of the massive protests against the unpopular poll tax.

The US president is higher than his party and he can only be removed from his post via legal impeachment or death. In order to impeach him, a sweeping majority is required, two thirds of the Senate, that must be convinced of convicting him.

Trump’s issue remains a US domestic affair that will not alter and change the country’s major policies. The vice president and most of the republicans adopt most of Trump’s foreign proposals, including those on Middle East issues.

Therefore, Trump’s era will go on, with or without him until the end of 2020. The policies will stay, i.e. pursuing Iran and restraining it in an unprecedented manner and supporting legitimacy in Yemen and the war against separatist militias. This policy may even be stricter in Iraq and Syria against Iran and parties under its leadership.

Trump’s policies will hence stay during this entire era, and they will most probably last until the era that follows considering that they’ve restored foreign policy to what it was before Obama’s second anomalous presidential term.

This article is also available in Arabic.

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Abdulrahman al-Rashed is the former General Manager of Al Arabiya News Channel. A veteran and internationally acclaimed journalist, he is a former editor-in-chief of the London-based leading Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat, where he still regularly writes a political column. He has also served as the editor of Asharq al-Awsat’s sister publication, al-Majalla. Throughout his career, Rashed has interviewed several world leaders, with his articles garnering worldwide recognition, and he has successfully led Al Arabiya to the highly regarded, thriving and influential position it is in today. He tweets @aalrashed