Syria after BrahimiAnother Lebanon

The status of the opposition does not help Brahimi’s in his task either. Almost two years into the conflict, the “National Coalition” -the main political opposition body - is still struggling to form a transitional government, a key element to grant it ground access and give it international legitimacy. The armed opposition, for its part, is also engulfed in its own divisions between the more radical groups such as Jubhat Nusra, and the more secular units inside the Free Syria Army. Jubhat Nusra labeled as “terrorist” by the U.S. administration, has gained ground in the last few months, after carrying key attacks against the regime in Idlib province and around Damascus.

Lebanonization of Syria?

Brahimi’s biggest hurdle today is the growing confidence in both the regime and the opposition that each can win and deliver a military knock-out punch to the other side.

However, and very much like neighboring Lebanon in 1975, Syria is systematically descending into a civil war. Similar to Beirut then, the grip of the central government is weakening in Damascus, while new militias are emerging and exercising control along sectarian and ethnic lines. Pro-regime armed groups such as Jeysh Shaabi and Shabiha have been acting as regime’s proxies while the military is stretched thin and fighting on several fronts. In a trend that was seen in Lebanon as well, the fighting is no more exclusive between the regime and the opposition. In Aleppo, the Jubhat Nusra rebels have clashed with the Kurdish (PKK) fighters, who in turn control most of Kurdish areas in the North after Assad withdrew his forces last June.

The Lebanon-ization of the Syrian conflict is something Brahimi familiar with and has repeatedly warned against. The envoy brokered the Taif agreement in 1989 which ended the Lebanese civil war after 15 years of fighting, and more than 150,000 deaths. At the core of Taif was a realization among the opposing Lebanese factions that neither can win, and a new power-sharing agreement is necessary to come in terms with the changing demographics inside the country. Regionally, the solid support behind the agreement from key countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iran facilitated Brahimi’s accomplishment that was also backed by the United States, right after the cold war.

Unless a regional and international consensus forms around Syria and along with that a readiness from the fighting factions to look for a real compromise, Brahimi’s mission is doomed to fail, and Syrians should brace for a long war.

(Joyce Karam is the Washington Correspondent for Al-Hayat Newspaper, an International Arabic Daily based in London. She has covered American politics extensively since 2004 with focus on U.S. policy towards the Middle East. Prior to that, she worked as a Journalist in Lebanon, covering the Post-war situation. Joyce holds a B.A. in Journalism and an M.A. in International Peace and Conflict Resolution. Twitter: @Joyce_Karam)