Iran unlikely to strike Israel directly after Syria consulate attack, experts say

Monday’s Israeli airstrike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus was one of the biggest blows to Iran since the 2020 US killing of its Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani. The strike carried added significance not only due to the casualties but also because it targeted an Iranian diplomatic facility, effectively constituting an attack on Iranian soil by Israel.

The attack, which, according to Tehran’s ambassador, was conducted by F-35 fighter jets, flattened the consulate that stood adjacent to the Iranian embassy. Iranian state media reported 13 casualties, including seven members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and six Syrian nationals.

Among the IRGC members killed were two high-ranking commanders: Mohammad-Reza Zahedi and his deputy, Mohammad-Hadi Haji-Rahimi. Zahedi, believed to be the primary target, had long overseen the operations of the Quds Force – the foreign operations arm of the IRGC – in Syria and Lebanon.

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The loss of these top commanders and the strike on an Iranian diplomatic facility raises questions about potential Iranian retaliation. Despite enduring the loss of several high-ranking military figures since the start of the Gaza war in October, Iran has refrained from direct attacks on Israel.

This restraint likely stems from the Islamic Republic’s core focus on self-preservation since its establishment in 1979. An outright war with Israel and its primary supporter, the US, would pose a major threat to the regime’s survival.

Arash Azizi, a senior lecturer in history and political science at Clemson University in South Carolina, told Al Arabiya English that Iran is unlikely to take direct action against Israeli targets, especially significant ones.

Azizi said Iran, despite facing pressure to retaliate, may also seek to avoid what he termed “Netanyahu’s bait,” referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose country has been embroiled in a war in Gaza with the Iran-backed Palestinian group Hamas for nearly six months.

Israel, known for its frequent airstrikes against Iran-linked targets in Syria, maintained its customary silence regarding the attack. However, unnamed Israeli officials cited by the New York Times acknowledged Israel’s responsibility.

On Tuesday, Iran’s top authority, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, vowed revenge.

“[Israel] will be punished at the hands of our brave men. We will make it regret this crime and others it has committed,” he said.

Some have speculated whether Khamenei’s reference to “our brave men” hinted at direct Iranian retaliation rather than through proxies.

However, Kasra Aarabi, director of IRGC research at United Against Nuclear Iran, disagreed with this interpretation of Khamenei’s statement, saying the Iranian leader views the Middle East “not through nation-states, but the prism of the ‘Imam and Ummah.’”

Khamenei “considers himself the Imam and all proxy fighters soldiers of the Imam. Thus, they can also be considered as ‘our men’ for Khamenei,” Aarabi explained in a post on the social media platform X.

He added that he does not believe the Israeli attack will lead to direct war or strikes against Israel. “The IRGC neither has the doctrine nor the capabilities for direct war with Israel, especially when domestic instability in Iran is as high as it currently is.”

The unprecedented targeting of an Iranian diplomatic facility by Israel has drawn attention, mainly as it technically constitutes an attack on Iranian soil. But Israel has, in recent years, conducted various operations inside Iranian territory without facing direct retaliatory measures.

For instance, in 2020, Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was assassinated in Iran in an attack that Tehran attributed to Israel.

Meir Javedanfar, who teaches Iranian politics at Reichman University in Israel, also believes a direct Iranian response against Israel is unlikely.

He highlighted Iran’s economic vulnerabilities, suggesting that a war with Israel could prove catastrophic for Iran.

“The economic pressure of a war against Israel could push the Iranian economy to the edge of the abyss. And this is not a risk that, logically speaking, Khamenei would want to take,” Javedanfar told Al Arabiya English.

Therefore, Javedanfar suggested that Iran is more inclined to rely on its proxies to target Israel or Israeli interests rather than directly engaging with Israel itself.

In the past, Iran has retaliated to Israeli attacks by targeting sites in Iraqi Kurdistan that it alleges are linked to Israel’s Mossad spy agency.

However, considering the nature of the latest Israeli assault, the Islamic Republic might face increased pressure from its supporters at home to pursue a different and potentially more forceful form of retaliation.

Top officials in Iran, who typically conflate the actions of the US and Israel in their public statements, have pointed the finger at Washington for the attack.

In a post on X hours after the Israeli attack, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said that Iran holds the US responsible for the assault on its consulate, adding that “America must be held accountable.”

Ali Shamkhani, an advisor to Khamenei, echoed this sentiment, writing in a post on the social media platform that the US “remains directly responsible whether or not it was aware of the intention to carry out this attack.”

US officials, however, denied involvement, stressing that Washington played no role in the strike.

Iran could retaliate by ordering its proxies to resume attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria. Such attacks were frequent until late January when Washington responded to the killing of three US troops in Jordan with numerous airstrikes on targets in Syria and Iraq affiliated with Iran and the militias it supports.

Following the Israeli attack on Monday, US forces in Syria intercepted a one-way attack drone near the al-Tanf base. However, US officials have said they do not believe the base was the intended target.

The origin of the drone and the party responsible for its launch remain unclear, although Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh attributed it to an IRGC-backed militia.

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