What is behind the Pentagon’s warning of an ISIS resurgence?

The US military put out a statement last week saying that ISIS was already on track this year to double the number of attacks it claimed in 2023, warning that this trend indicates the terrorist group is trying to “reconstitute” after several years of decreased capability.

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) also revealed that there are an estimated 2,500 ISIS militants at large across Iraq and Syria. From January to June 2024, ISIS has claimed 153 attacks in Iraq and Syria.

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Over the first six months of this year, American and Coalition forces have partnered with Iraqi security forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to carry out 196 so-called Defeat ISIS missions. This resulted in 44 ISIS militants killed and another 166 detained.

Most anti-ISIS operations were in Iraq, with 137 and another 59 in Syria.

CENTCOM also said of those killed, eight were senior ISIS leaders, and 32 were captured. Those killed or captured were responsible for planning operations outside of Syria and Iraq, recruiting, training and weapons smuggling, according to CENTCOM. “The removal of these individuals from their leadership positions further degrades ISIS capabilities to conduct external operations in the US and allied nations,” CENTCOM said.

As for the militants on the run, the US military said it was equally essential to repatriate over 9,000 ISIS detainees in Syria as well as the 43,000 individuals and families from the Al-Hol and Al-Roj camps.

Although that number has dropped from 70,000 in 2019, Washington has consistently sounded the alarm about the need for countries to take back these individuals and militants.

“The global enduring defeat of ISIS relies on combined efforts of the Coalition and partners to remove key leaders from the battlefield and the repatriation, rehabilitation, and reintegration of families from Al Hol and Al Roj,” CENTCOM Commander Gen. Erik Kurilla said in a statement.

He added: “We continue to focus our efforts on specifically targeting those members of ISIS who are seeking to conduct external operations outside of Iraq and Syria and those ISIS members attempting to break out ISIS members in detention in an attempt to reconstitute their forces.”

Dana Stroul, the Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East until last January, said the rise in ISIS attacks should be a warning and that the significant progress made in the Defeat-ISIS campaign did not mean the group was no longer trying to reconstitute.

“This fight is not over,” Stroul told Al Arabiya English.

Iran, ISIS and US withdrawal

Brad Bowman, the senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the ISIS caliphate had been defeated, but ISIS as a terror group was not. “It is important to not confuse the two,” he told Al Arabiya English.

A failure to maintain pressure on ISIS in Iraq and Syria will allow the group to have more breathing space to plan and conduct attacks abroad, Bowman said.

He also cautioned against allowing Iran and its proxies “to get their way” and have US forces withdraw from Iraq and Syria. “ISIS will grow stronger, and Americans will have to return later at a greater cost,” he said.

There are around 900 US troops in Syria and another 2,500 in Iraq. Iran-backed militias and politicians in Baghdad have been demanding a complete US withdrawal.

Washington, meanwhile, has been looking to establish a formal bilateral relationship and shift away from the military ties that have overshadowed the partnership since the US invasion in 2003.

Earlier this month, the top Pentagon official for Middle East policy, Dan Shapiro, and the US ambassador to Baghdad, Alina Romanowski, met with the Iraqi prime minister to follow up on American troop withdrawal talks. Discussions are continuing this week in Washington.

“The uptick in [ISIS] attacks should be on the table this week as US and Iraqi delegations meet at the Pentagon to discuss the future of the US and Coalition military mission in Iraq and Syria, lest hard-fought progress in defeating ISIS be squandered by hasty transition planning,” Stroul said.

Sources familiar with these talks told Al Arabiya English that Baghdad wants US troops out of the country by next year and for that to begin later this year.

US and Iraqi officials agreed last year to begin talks about the future shape and role of an international coalition to defeat ISIS, which is present at the invitation of the Iraqi government.

The first round of discussions was held in January but was quickly halted due to the deadly attack on US troops in Jordan, which US officials said had the fingerprints of Kata’ib Hezbollah.

Less than 24 hours after the US killed a senior Kata’ib Hezbollah commander, before Iraq unilaterally announced a second round of talks with the US would be held on Feb. 11. The US quickly put out a statement confirming the talks.

Attacks attributed to Iran-backed militias targeted US forces in Iraq and Syria over 140 times since last October. But a firm US response, which killed senior militia commanders in Iraq, led to a brief lull in the attacks.

US military officials have said behind closed doors that the Biden administration’s policy of decreased pressure on Iran and its proxies has hamstrung the ability to establish deterrence.

Bowman said the “relatively modest commitment of forces” in the region is preventing a large-scale and costly deployment of US troops in the Middle East. “But if we are going to deploy Americans into harm’s way, we must give them the military means and political permission to make adversaries regret any attacks on our forces,” he said.

Charles Lister, the director of the Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism programs at the Middle East Institute, also pinned the blame on Iran.

“The fault for this reduction in counter-ISIS operational activity lies primarily with Iran and its militant proxies in Iraq and Syria, which have launched at least 185 attacks on US troops since October 2023 — limiting US military freedom of maneuver significantly, particularly in Syria,” Lister recently wrote.

Read more: Senior US, Iraq military officials discuss future American troop presence