Can Iran count on Russia to come to its aid in a war with Israel?

Last Friday’s meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, highlighted the growing alignment between Moscow and Tehran as the Middle East braces for Israel’s response to Iran’s largest-ever missile attack on October 1.

The two Western-sanctioned leaders discussed accelerating their bilateral cooperation across various sectors. They hailed their countries’ growing economic ties and similar views on world affairs.

Putin, locked in a standoff with the West over Ukraine, frames Russia’s position as part of a broader existential struggle against a self-serving West. As such, he has turned to strengthening ties with what he refers to as the Global East and South – categories that prominently include Iran. Both partners are aligned in their opposition to US policies and Western sanctions.

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The meeting came amid closer military coordination between Iran and Russia’s military in recent years, particularly since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Iran has been accused of supplying thousands of “Shahed” attack drones to Russia.

Iran also recently transferred short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last month, marking a major development in the country’s support for Moscow. Washington responded with sanctions for the move, which pulled Tehran further into the Ukraine conflict.

The Russia-Iran entente remains strong despite some recent tensions over Azerbaijan’s Russia-backed Zangezur corridor.

Putin, whose country is hosting a summit of the BRICS nations in Kazan on October 22-24, invited Pezeshkian to come to Russia on an official visit, a proposal the Iranian leader accepted according to Russia’s state RIA news agency.

The summit is being presented by Moscow as evidence that Western efforts to isolate Russia have failed. Putin is keen to build up BRICS - which has expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates as well as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - as a powerful counterweight to the West in global politics and trade.

Moscow-Tehran relations: A cause for US concern?

Experts believe that Washington should take these trends and developments seriously, but without alarmism.

However, while the connection between Russia and Iran should not inherently provoke concerns – given their right as neighboring countries to engage in trade and foster close relations – much of their cooperation transcends mere economic interests from an American perspective. It is increasingly characterized by anti-American and anti-Western undertones.

“There is this view by Iran and Russia that the United States – and the West in general – must be confronted whenever possible,” Alex Vatanka, founding director of the Iran Program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute think tank, told Al Arabiya English.

“We observe this dynamic across various arenas: for instance, Iran supplying drones and missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine, while Russia, in turn, provides military expertise to Iran amid the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict. In addition, there is cyber cooperation between the two against the West.”

Both Russia and Iran have found further common ground as they are isolated by global sanctions. But this burgeoning relationship does not offer Iran a reprieve from US sanctions and pressures, and the long-term effects remain uncertain. While membership in BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is symbolically significant for Iran, it has yet to yield material benefits.

“One should not underestimate the diplomatic comfort this affiliation provides Iran - it alleviates its sense of isolation and positions it alongside major players like Russia, China, India and Brazil. However, the Iranian economy has yet to experience tangible gains from these memberships,” noted Vatanka.

Pezeshkian has already emphasized his desire to deepen relations with Russia to counter the “cruel” sanctions imposed by the West.

Iran-Israel hostility: A tool for Russia?

Analysts argue that the dynamics of the ongoing hostility between Israel and Iran present a complex scenario for Russia. On one hand, the protracted conflict between Israel and the so-called “axis of resistance,” which includes Iran and its allies, serves Russian interests by diverting Western attention from the situation in Ukraine.

The conflict also provides Moscow with a propaganda tool to highlight perceived Western double standards in addressing issues like Palestine and Ukraine.

However, a large-scale war, particularly a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel that could involve the United States, is not in Russia’s interest.

“Such a conflict could jeopardize Russia’s geopolitical objectives in the Middle East, particularly in Syria,” Hamidreza Azizi, visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), told Al Arabiya English.

“Currently, Israel appears to be escalating its campaign against Iranian-backed positions. If it chooses to degrade the capabilities of the ‘axis of resistance’ by targeting Assad, the implications for Russia may not be as favorable as they have been thus far.”

On October 3, Israel targeted a weapons depot close to Russia’s Hmeimim base in Latakia in a series of missile strikes.

Reports said some of Israel’s cruise missiles were shot down by Russian antiaircraft fire from Russia’s nearby base but that others hit a warehouse used by Syrian and Iranian forces.

“A conflict that results in the weakening of Iran – especially one involving direct confrontation with the United States – would not serve Russia’s interests,” noted Azizi.

“Russia’s relationship with Iran is nuanced; it traditionally partners with the more hardline factions within the Iranian government rather than the state as a whole. Therefore, while Russia benefits from prolonged hostilities that absorb Western resources, it seeks to avoid any scenario that significantly weakens Iran.”

How far will Russia go to support Iran?

As tensions between Iran and Israel simmer, the possibility of a broader conflict has sparked debates about the role Russia might play if hostilities escalate.

On Thursday, Russia warned Israel to not even consider striking Iranian nuclear facilities, state news agency TASS quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov as saying.

After Iran fired 180 missiles at Israel earlier this month, there has been speculation that Tel Aviv could strike Tehran’s nuclear facilities, as it has long threatened to do.

Israel and Western nations have long suspected Iran of using its civilian nuclear energy program as a cover to develop nuclear weapons, a claim Tehran consistently denies.

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office stated that while Israel would consider US advice – particularly Washington’s warnings against striking Iranian nuclear facilities – it would ultimately act based on its own national interests.

If an all-out war were to erupt between Iran and Israel, analysts suggest that Russia is unlikely to directly involve itself in the conflict, much like its approach during the campaign in Syria.

“Moscow would neither deploy troops nor provide advanced military assets, such as the Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets Iran has sought,” said Azizi.

“Despite its close military ties with Iran, Russia places great value on its economic partnerships with Gulf states, making it cautious in balancing these relationships. Also, Russia’s focus remains on the ongoing war in Ukraine, limiting its capacity for broader military engagement in the Middle East.”

Moscow would remain prudent about overtly arming Iran to avoid upsetting Saudi Arabia and the UAE in particular. Thus, any Russian support for Iran would probably be indirect and restrained, focusing on areas like military technology and intelligence sharing rather than active involvement.

Some raised the possibility that Russia would send weapons to Iranian proxies only if US forces were directly engaged in the conflict.

Netanyahu told Le Figaro newspaper in an interview released on Wednesday that Israeli forces had found “state-of-the-art” Russian weapons in searches of Hezbollah bases in south Lebanon.

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“While Russia has historically allowed Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in Syria, it is unlikely that Moscow would directly arm Hezbollah or Iran to avoid jeopardizing its ties with Israel,” said Vatanka.

“Russia’s balancing act is expected to persist, avoiding direct confrontation while maintaining military and economic interests across the region.”

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