Trump’s reelection an unsettling reality for Iran, but one it must confront

Between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, there was little doubt as to which candidate Iran would prefer. Now that Trump has won the US presidential election, the man who makes Tehran uneasy is set to return to the White House, raising questions about how Iran will handle his second term.

During his first term from 2017 to 2021, Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 nuclear deal and reimposed harsh sanctions on Iran. His “maximum pressure” campaign led to a steep drop in Iranian oil exports, exerting substantial economic pressure on Tehran.

In 2020, Trump ordered the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, a senior Iranian military commander considered the second most influential figure in the Iranian regime after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This action marked the most significant US military operation against Iran since Operation Praying Mantis in 1988 and led Tehran to vow retaliation against Trump personally and several members of his administration.

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After Trump’s departure, President Joe Biden adopted a more lenient approach, which saw a resurgence in Iran’s oil exports, largely due to a relaxed enforcement of sanctions.

This was acknowledged by Iran’s former chief diplomat and current vice president, Mohammad Javad Zarif. In a debate on state television in June, Zarif explained that under Biden, the US policy was to “loosen the screw [of sanctions],” adding that things would change should Trump return to power.

Trump’s return raises concerns for the Iranian regime, according to Arash Azizi, a visiting fellow at Boston University’s Frederick S. Pardee Center.

“Trump will likely bring maximum pressure back, but he ultimately wants to make a deal with Iran. It will be a rocky road getting there, but that’s what he ultimately wants,” Azizi told Al Arabiya English.

Iran has publicly downplayed the significance of the US election result. “It makes no difference to us who won the US election,” President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Thursday.

Later the same day, Vice President Mohammad Javad Zarif appeared to extend a diplomatic gesture to Trump, posting on X: “Let us hope that the incoming administration of [Donald Trump] and [J.D. Vance] will stand against war as pledged, and will heed the clear lesson given by the American electorate to end wars and prevent new ones.”

“Iran … will not be swayed by threats, but will be cognizant of respect,” he added.

This outreach, undoubtedly approved by Khamenei, who has the final say on all matters of state, will be deeply unpopular among hardline supporters of the Iranian regime, many of whom view Trump as “Soleimani’s killer” and demand justice for his death.

Zarif’s role as the messenger appears deliberate. He is often targeted by hardliners, and by using him to deliver this message, Khamenei distances himself from a decision that he knows will not sit well with his supporters, maintaining his usual practice of avoiding direct involvement in controversial moves.

Saeid Golkar, an associate professor at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, agreed that a return to the maximum pressure campaign was likely and that it could be even harsher this time.

“Since the Iranian regime has been accused of trying to undermine Trump’s campaign and even killing him, I can imagine he will be even angrier with the clergy than before,” Golkar, also a senior advisor at United Against Nuclear Iran, told Al Arabiya English.

If Trump pursues policies similar to those from his first term, Tehran may return to its “no war, no negotiations” policy. In 2018, after Trump withdrew the US from the nuclear deal, Supreme Leader Khamenei declared that there would be neither war nor negotiations with Washington.

However, Iran is arguably in a weaker position than it was in 2018. The Israel-Hamas war, which began in October 2023, has significantly weakened key allies of Tehran, such as Hamas in Gaza, and more importantly, Hezbollah in Lebanon. Additionally, Iran’s air defense capabilities have been compromised following the first-ever overt Israeli attack on Iranian soil last month.

The unpredictability of Trump

Others have pointed to Trump’s unpredictable nature, suggesting that it’s impossible to predict exactly what approach and policies he will pursue in his second term. Trump himself has sent mixed signals, at times supporting military action against Iran, while at other times, he has indicated an openness to talks with Tehran, including over the nuclear deal.

Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, noted that Trump’s unpredictability, combined with his focus on domestic issues, could present an opportunity for Iran – if its leaders are willing to think “creatively” about how to engage with him.

Vatanka said that unlike Biden, with whom backchannel diplomacy was possible, engaging with Trump would require direct outreach to his inner circle. “I don’t know if the Iranians have that capacity, but there are open calls by figures linked to the regime to look for ways to do so,” he told Al Arabiya English.

Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, wrote on X that the individuals appointed to key positions in the incoming Trump administration will be crucial to watch. He noted that Trump’s team includes opposing camps on foreign policy: isolationists who want to avoid conflict with Iran and hawks who would welcome it.

CNN reported on Wednesday that Brian Hook, who served as Trump’s envoy on Iran, is expected to lead Trump’s transition team at the State Department. Hook is regarded as a hardliner on Iran.

Iran-Israel conflict

A major concern for Iran regarding Trump’s return is his potential to empower Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to target Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities. Biden had previously urged Israel to avoid such actions, a stance Trump criticized.

Despite Trump’s tough rhetoric on Iran, he has repeatedly expressed a desire to end wars everywhere, and analysts believe that he will be cautious about being drawn into a full-scale conflict with Iran.

“Trump might encourage Netanyahu to be more aggressive in hitting Iran. But his overall goal will remain the same as Biden: preventing a broader war,” Azizi said.

Iran has vowed to retaliate against Israel following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26. The Israeli strikes came in response to an Iranian missile barrage on Israel on October 1, which itself was retaliation for the deaths of Iran-backed militant leaders and a senior Iranian commander.

Analysts suggest that Trump’s reelection may mean that if Iran is to act, it will need to do so before January, when Trump assumes office.

Ultimately, while Trump’s return is undoubtedly an unpleasant scenario for Iran, it is one that the Islamic Republic likely anticipated and prepared for.

Azizi predicted that Tehran will “swallow the bitter poison of talking to ‘Soleimani’s killer’ in the interest of self-preservation,” although there will be significant hurdles in the process.

“Trump would want a quick photo-op deal, and that’s not how Tehran generally does things,” he said.

Read more: Iran says Trump win a chance for US to reassess ‘wrong policies’