The perils of proxy wars: Iran and Hezbollah’s strategic failures

“One of the virtues of murder at times is that it brings things into perspective and the debate back to the table.”

My slain friend Lokman Slim used these witty and grim words in his remarks on the assassination of Mustafa Badreddine, Hezbollah’s top military leader, who was reportedly killed by the Syrian opposition in February of 2016. Lokman’s comment, delivered before his own murder in February of 2021 by a hit squad deep in Hezbollah-controlled southern Lebanon, perfectly frames the recent assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran – which Israel has not yet claimed – and Hezbollah’s top military commander Fouad Shukr, killed in an Israeli attack in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

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Israel’s precise strike on a residential building used by Shukr, and the subsequent lack of action from Hezbollah and Iran, served as a harsh reminder for the Lebanese and anyone still hoping for a cessation of hostilities of what is truly at stake. Shukr, a close associate and disciple of Imad Mughniyeh – the founder of Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad responsible for the 1983 US Marine Barracks bombing and the subsequent abduction of Western hostages – was targeted for his alleged role in the recent rocket attack on Majdal Shams, which killed 14 children in the predominantly Druze region of the Golan. Shukr, who served as Hassan Nasrallah’s military aide and head of Hezbollah’s missile program, was a virtual ghost until three rockets partially destroyed the building he was using as one of his command posts in the densely populated area of Haret Hreik, killing an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps advisor and several civilian inhabitants, including two children.

Fuad Shukr. (X)

While Hezbollah was anticipating an Israeli retaliatory strike, it miscalculated the gravity and seniority of the target. Israel, through various Western sources, misled Hezbollah into believing that the strike would avoid high-value targets and civilian-dense locations, leading them to expect a theatrical display rather than a significant hit. In fact, Hezbollah went as far as to announce to its cadres, likely under Shukr’s orders, the exact timing of the Israeli strike, information which was then leaked to local and international press.

Similarly, the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh in an IRGC hotel in Tehran has sparked criticism of the IRGC’s ability to protect their guests and their own political and military leaders. If the information holds true, Haniyeh’s killing will likely inspire episodes of the famed Israeli spy thriller television series “Tehran,” further embarrassing Iran and reminding the international community, including Iranian apologists, that normalizing terror by reasoning with Iran and its proxies only leads to more death and destruction.

Religious clerics offer their condolences over the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, at the representative office of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Najaf, Iraq August 1, 2024. (Reuters)

As the world and the region brace for Iran’s purported punitive response to the killings of Shukr, Haniyeh, and Mohammed Dief – whose death Israel recently confirmed – Israel has succeeded in exposing Iran as technologically primitive and feeble. In reality, the only way for Iran and Hezbollah to avenge their “martyrs” is to target their Israeli counterparts, a feat currently beyond Iran’s capabilities. Iran created Hezbollah and similar groups as forward self-defense posts and deterrents to prevent Israel and other Western entities from striking Iran directly. However, these militias have only succeeded in turning the countries they operate in – Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen – into rundown narco-states struggling to free themselves from Iran’s occupation.

Nasrallah has repeatedly assured his constituents and the wider public that if Israel targets the southern suburbs of Beirut, Hezbollah will not hesitate to strike Tel Aviv. However, he has not followed through on these threats. Iran and Hezbollah were dealt major blows with the assassinations of their military chief Imad Mughniyeh and the IRGC Quds Force commander Qassem Suleimani, yet Iran’s lack of response was perceived by its Western apologists as a sign of wise restraint rather than fear of total annihilation.

Hezbollah, as an asset of Iran’s expansionist agenda, has failed miserably in its goal to liberate Palestine and destroy Israel. For four decades, Hezbollah has talked the talk but failed to walk the walk. If Nasrallah carries out his threats to avenge Shukr and Haniyeh’s humiliating assassinations, or if the international community finds a theatrical way out of Iran’s current predicament, the outcome will likely be the same.

Ironically, Iran’s hope now lies in American and Israeli democracy: first, by the Democrats keeping the White House, and second, by the Israeli public voting out Netanyahu – a dangerous and ambitious bet.

Nasrallah and any potential successor must rethink their military tactics – if they exist – and, more importantly, revisit their master narrative. They should devise a new strategy that relies less on martyrdom and more on understanding that a lifeguard who drowns cannot claim to be on the brink of victory or paradise.

Read more:

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