How 2026 will shape the Middle East for the next decade

Several anticipated developments in the coming year will make 2026 a decisive year, one that will witness events and shifts shaping the region for the next decade. Multiple arenas across the region are experiencing challenges and tensions that affect one another in one way or another, given the role of key players involved, namely Iran and Israel. The conflict between them shifted in 2025 from a proxy war to a direct confrontation, a trend likely to continue despite Tehran’s intense efforts to rebuild the capabilities of its proxies, who have suffered heavy blows since October 7, 2023. In recent months, Iran has been working to consolidate its allies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen to keep the conflict with Israel confined to those arenas and away from its own territory. However, international pressure on these groups, particularly in Lebanon and Iraq, to disarm will persist, placing executive authorities in both countries before difficult tests.

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Israel is set to hold legislative elections next October that will determine the political fate of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government. This will place Netanyahu under significant pressure to buy more time in order to achieve accomplishments that bolster his standing with Israeli voters and ensure his survival in power. That, in turn, will require the continuation of wars on some, if not all, of the seven fronts Israel says it has been fighting on over the past two years.

Netanyahu’s meeting with President Donald Trump at the White House was aimed at identifying which fronts will be activated and the objectives to be achieved on each. Naturally, no specifics of the meeting were made public, despite leaks and extensive analysis. However, based on reporting and analysis in Hebrew and Western media, the Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen fronts are expected to see escalation in the coming period.

As for Iran, Israel appears determined to destroy its missile program alongside its nuclear program. Iran’s missile capabilities have clearly taken Israel by surprise and are now classified as a strategic threat. They also deeply concern Europe and the United States due to the increased range of Iran’s ballistic missiles and the advancement of their warheads. For this reason, the West may be open to supporting Israeli military action to neutralize the Iranian missile threat in addition to the nuclear one. Tel Aviv is seeking direct US involvement in a broad attack on Iran, although Washington is more likely to limit its role to defensive, logistical, and intelligence support. Some observers fear Israel could exploit US backing for a new war against Iran to launch operations aimed at toppling the regime, a goal that Israeli figures openly discussed during the most recent conflict with Iran. Israel may also wait until the end of the academic year before opening the Iran front, in order to reduce the risk posed to its population by ballistic missile barrages.

In Lebanon, the process of removing Hezbollah’s weapons north of the Litani River by the Lebanese army will face significant complications and stagnation due to the group’s rejection of the move. According to warnings from several international actors, this could lead to the resumption of war against Hezbollah targets, particularly in the Bekaa Valley, where ballistic missile stockpiles, long-range missiles, and drones are believed to be stored. Moreover, the mandate of the UN peacekeeping force UNIFIL in southern Lebanon expires at the end of 2026, making it necessary to determine the future of border areas with Israel and how they will be managed in the absence of a buffer force, especially if

Hezbollah’s weapons remain unchanged. Any future war would strengthen the role of the existing mechanism, pushing negotiations between Lebanon and Israel to a more advanced stage, with higher demands from both sides. If Israel intends to launch ground operations toward the Bekaa, it would likely wait until spring to avoid snow conditions.

The fate of the Iraq front is tied to the composition of the Iraqi government and the future of weapons held by the Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Units. If Iranian influence grows within the next Iraqi government, the likelihood of Israeli strikes against PMU missile and drone depots will increase significantly. Washington is exerting strong pressure to prevent the formation of a pro-Iranian Iraqi government and to push authorities to disarm PMF militias. Any operations against
Iraq could coincide with the anticipated Israeli war against Iran, given the geographic link between the two countries.

The region witnessed a dramatic development in recent days linked to the situation in Yemen, namely Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as an independent state. Many analysts believe Israel’s objective is to establish a military base in the Bab el-Mandeb area, the southern gateway to the Red Sea, which lies opposite Yemen’s coast. This would significantly enhance Israeli military operations against the Houthis in Yemen and allow closer monitoring of Iranian movements in the Red Sea. Israel’s expansion toward Yemen also carries long-term implications tied to strengthening its influence in the Horn of Africa and encircling Egypt from the south. Despite the peace agreement between Israel and Egypt, Israeli officials continue to cite the growing military capabilities of Egypt as a source of concern.

The Gaza and Syria fronts cannot be ignored. Gaza is now linked to a peace plan bearing the name and signature of President Trump, meaning US pressure is weighing heavily on Netanyahu and his intentions toward the territory. Hamas’s threat to Israel has diminished significantly, and the diplomatic track is moving toward implementation of its second phase in the coming weeks, though military action to disarm Hamas cannot be ruled out. On the Syrian front, improving US-Syrian relations at security, political, and economic levels, along with the lifting of Caesar Act sanctions, complicates Netanyahu’s clear efforts to use the Druze and Kurdish communities to pressure the Syrian government into accepting Israeli conditions under a new security arrangement. Washington’s support for a Turkish-Saudi role in Syria that safeguards US interests there has also irritated Netanyahu. The rapid pace of developments in Syria is likely to push matters toward escalation and decisive military outcomes in the coming months, leading to a new security agreement between Israel and Syria and the consolidation of the new administration in Damascus.

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