US-Iran talks in Oman: A beginning of dialogue in the shadow of distrust

The American-Iranian talks in Oman were not about tangible progress but rather an opening for potential negotiations between the two sides. The White House considered the talks a good occasion to present clear demands to Tehran so that no one can claim that Iran was not well informed and abundantly warned.

The focus was on the nuclear issue, while ballistic missiles were referenced as part of the nuclear file, as they are not dangerous unless equipped with nuclear warheads.

The matter of proxies was mentioned illustratively, not as a direct negotiation item, with a reminder that any support for proxies would play very badly with the US if it threatened its interests or those of its allies in the region.

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The talks were serious but not conclusive in any way. Iran did not commit to agreeing to any demands or timetables because Iran’s premise is that of buying time. The US side indicated that waiting would not be prolonged, and that time, while temporarily useful for both sides, is not open ended.

It’s quite dangerous for President Donald Trump to be trapped in a negotiations process with Iran. He does not want a repeat of the bad experience of Ukraine. Trump rejects endless unlimited negotiations while continuing economic pressure through tariffs on countries that do business with Iran. He believes that diplomacy backed by a serious threat of a military strike is the only way to drive Iran to deliver.

Iran was served notice in the Oman talks of what is expected from it. Whether this is an entrapment for Iran to provide justification for a US military operation, or a serious test to understand its intentions particularly regarding its nuclear intentions, remains to be seen.

The nuclear issue is a top priority for the Trump administration as a starting point, not as the end of the process. Ballistic missiles are present in the US considerations as part of the nuclear file because they do not pose a threat unless armed with nuclear warheads.

As for the regional proxies and the internal Iranian situation, they are not off the table in the next rounds of talks or future negotiation. It is worth noting that the White House issued an important official statement on this matter.

It stated that the president holds Iran responsible for its attempts to acquire nuclear weapons, supporting terrorism, developing ballistic missiles, and destabilizing regional security which threatens the security of the US and its allies.

But positions within the administration diverged. Vice President J.D. Vance focused almost entirely on the nuclear priority, with an implicit indication that the US is not concerned in the other files. In contrast, Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted that the administration is committed to all four points: nuclear, ballistic missiles, regional behavior, and internal conduct of the Iranian regime.

Whether in genuine conflict or in a premeditated orchestration, the goal is to assess whether Iran can deliver something remarkable in the nuclear dossier. Trump awaits to gauge Iran’s response to what was presented. If remarkable, or meeting a substantial part of US demands, it could be built upon.

US demands are clear: full cessation of the nuclear program, disclosure of all sites, assurance of no nuclear program, and full access to all nuclear locations. These demands are likely to face Iranian rejection. If not met substantially, a US strike could follow within days of the next round. A deal is possible, potentially with secret guarantees, but what has occurred so far is a purchase of time for both parties, useful temporarily but not open-ended.

The United States presents itself as ready to give Iran the opportunity, and if not utilized, it retains the right to direct upcoming strikes that could severely impact the Iranian regime. Iran seeks to buy time, avoiding commitments on nuclear, missile, proxy-related issues, or internal developments.

Both sides operate from mutual distrust, attempting to find minimal ground for confidence. Both require a formula to save face, whether the talks fail, or concessions are made.

The issue of mutual trust at the highest leadership levels- President Donald Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei - is critical. Both are unpredictable personalities, each controlling decision-making directly. Both are men of arrogance.

The split within the US administration between J.D. Vance’s camp and Marco Rubio’s camp is interesting. Vance favors US restraint and limited intervention. Rubio considers Iran weak and the regime unstable. He does not trust Iran’s intentions and expects Iranian eventual retaliation.

Trump relishes in owning the element of surprise, keeping the world tense and alert, awaiting his decision. Khamenei tightly controls the Iranian system, his only weapon is retaliation. making any step unpredictable.

Iran’s projection of the end game is still unclear. For now, the regime feels reassured by what it views as American concessions in limiting talks to the nuclear and in relocating from Turkey to Oman.

But overconfidence could be perilous for the regime in Iran, as American entrapment will potentially lead to a pitfall if Ali Khamenei misjudges and misreads Donald Trump.

Trump is prepared to follow through and craft a deal ultimately if he sees it in American interest. He is preoccupied now with domestic matters and is preparing the battle of midterm elections.

He is capable of retreat when necessary, and is ready to prove his mastery of negotiations with prudence. Donald Trump is not worried over America’s reputation of backtracking or betrayal when it comes to advancing national interests. But he’s also a man who does not like eating his own words and who despises being associated with weakness.

President Trump cannot afford to be seen frail with Iran after assembling such a large US military presence in the region. He is now issuing Tehran a soft ultimatum and will not allow the regime a prolonged hesitation.

He is now monitoring any Iranian missteps while hoping that the regime in Tehran understands well the consequences of missing the opportunity he’s providing.

Read more:

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