Munich and the fracturing West: Can Europe carry its own defense?

The Munich security Conference is one of the world’s most important gatherings on defense and security and regularly attended by heads of government, ministers and top-level experts.

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The transatlantic alliance was the main focus this year. In 2025 the speech of US Vice President JD Vance rattled delegates. He sharply criticized Europe for its liberal immigration policies, exclusion of far-right parties from mainstream political discourse. He also demanded that Europe foot more of its defense bill.

Vance’s speech was followed by an onslaught of tariffs, disagreements over supporting the Ukraine and President Trump’s quest of annexing Greenland – a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark - a long-standing NATO ally.

Concern over transatlantic alliance became a key topic in Europe’s capitals. All eyes were therefore set on this year’s speech by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He highlighted commonalities between Europe and the US in culture and history. However, he criticized Europe’s immigration policies, its climate goals and attacked the United Nations and the multilateral system. He emphasized the need of Europe to pay its fair share for its defense. The speech can be likened to the proverbial steel fist in a velvet glove.

The current state of transatlantic alliance

The United States pays less attention to the alliance. This did not, however, start with Donald Trump. Barak Obama tweaked his foreign policy pivot towards Asia, reflecting that the US has an Atlantic and a Pacific coast. The first Trump administration defined China as a major threat. The enmity continued under President Joe Biden and was further deepened in this Trump administration. The new National Security Strategy further emphasized a newfound focus on the United States’s Southern neighbors in Latin America, as evidenced by the intervention in Venezuela.

The US had asked Europe to contribute 2 percent of its GDP to its own defense since the fall of the Berlin Wall – alas to little avail.

Trump’s shock therapy and the war in the Ukraine finally got many European nations to pledge 5 percent to defense and to look at stronger cooperation within Europe, but there are stress points:

European unity: In the 1990s the Franco- German relationship served as an anchor. This alliance is much weaker now. France holds Presidential elections next year with a possibility of the far-right National Front winning.

There is the so-called E3: Germany France and the UK – alas Sir Keir Starmer’s government could also be more stable.

There is also the necessity of streamlining operating systems within Europe. Experts come up with different numbers when comparing US and Europe, but the ratio remains around 1:5. This complicates coordinated approaches. The talk of Europe creating its own nuclear shield runs into barriers of cost and treaty violations – should countries develop their own arsenals.

Affordability: Budgets are stretched and debt capacity is limited: According to EU statistics, the debt to GDP ratio in 2025 stood at 88 percent at the EU level, 114 percent in France, 138 percent in Italy and 62 percent in Germany and 94 percent in the UK.

Constrained ability raises debt results in increased contributions by the taxpayer. Hard choices between legacy social security systems and defense needs will have to be made, but election cycles are short and populists, who perceive threats differently, nip at many governments’ heels.

Defense spending requires strong economies. Before the Ukraine war countries like Germany, the erstwhile economic locomotive of Europe, used to benefit from highly skilled, expensive labor, low energy costs and a free trade regime. By now energy prices have soared and new tariff regimes do not help the competitiveness of export-oriented economies, resulting in anemic growth rates.

While the goal of European cooperation and increased spending in defense is laudable, the obstacles are manifold.

Lastly, while the Munich conference was very Europe centric, the world has significantly changed since 1949 when NATO was founded. The global population has grown more than threefold and many countries in the Global South gained statehood. The population ratio between the Global South and the Global North stands at approximately 7:1. This is reflected in shifting priorities.

The African Union Summit took place during the same weekend as the conference in Munich and received little media coverage. We must pay more attention to what happens in the populous Global South. The countries of GCC, especially Saudi Arabia can play a vital role in bridging that gap between North and South.

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