The third generation of terrorist organizations

The good news is that we no longer hear parents complain that their sons are going to fight in Syria. There has been no news on social media about the deaths of fighters there either. It seems the recruitment of young men, which was widespread in the past, has diminished a lot, as has the number of fighters going to Syria. Regional cooperation has resulted in restricting political and religious propaganda, and the collection of funds in support of militant jihad.

However, this does not mean we no longer have sympathizers with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and Al-Nusra Front. It only means their activity has diminished. Many regional and international security apparatuses are cooperating in tracking these groups and bombing them daily. Since we do not know how many members they have, it is difficult to believe the estimates circulating of the extent of their losses.

Even the estimated number of Arabs and foreigners within their ranks is unknown. One cannot completely destroy their cells. Proof of that is how jihadist remnants are still fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq. As long as the war in Syria continues, there will be extremists engaged in fighting. It is not unlikely for these extremist parties to make a powerful comeback later, due to the US-led alliance’s wrong strategy of only targeting one group.

ISIS is clearly suffering great losses in Syria. This is positive because it can help rid the Syrian cause of a terrorist group that represents a big problem in Syria, and which will represent a bigger problem for the region later. However, this will increase fighting between two major parties in Syria: the regime and its allies versus the armed opposition.

The US-led coalition is targeting ISIS, but not other terrorist groups such as the Lebanese Hezbollah and Iraqi League of the Righteous, whose practices are similar to that of ISIS. The policy of only fighting ISIS is probably short-sighted, and will lead to the expansion of sectarian fighting due to the failure of diplomacy because there is an insistence to impose the regime by force on the Syrian people.

The coalition would say its task in Syria is specifically to eliminate ISIS, not engage in the civil war. This is a blind policy. Even if the coalition kills all ISIS fighters, others will take their place if the war continues and if President Bashar al-Assad, who is responsible for murdering half a million people and displacing 10 million others, remains in power. A new ISIS will inevitably appear in Syria and outside it.

This happened in Iraq when Sunni tribes helped US troops eliminate al-Qaeda there. Due to the authoritarianism and hostility of the Iraqi government, ISIS emerged and expanded into Syria, eventually becoming more powerful than al-Qaeda.

Therefore, the coalition must realize the threat of its current campaign, because it is leaving pro-Assad foreign militias free to wage a sectarian war against Syrians. It is thus certain that a third generation of terrorists, more determined and dangerous, will appear.

This article was first published in Asharq al-Awsat on April 07, 2016.
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Abdulrahman al-Rashed is the former General Manager of Al Arabiya News Channel. A veteran and internationally acclaimed journalist, he is a former editor-in-chief of the London-based leading Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat, where he still regularly writes a political column. He has also served as the editor of Asharq al-Awsat’s sister publication, al-Majalla. Throughout his career, Rashed has interviewed several world leaders, with his articles garnering worldwide recognition, and he has successfully led Al Arabiya to the highly regarded, thriving and influential position it is in today. He tweets @aalrashed