Israel’s ultra-orthodox Shas party bets again on kingmaker role in elections

Long seen as a kingmaker in Israel, the Shas party wants to remain central to political life in upcoming elections, but its opposition to military conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jews could undermine its ambitions.

Although the ultra-Orthodox are a minority in Israel, parties like Shas often play a decisive role in coalition governments, allowing them to obtain concessions on key issues for the community.

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Shas has been a part of almost every governing coalition since it entered the legislature in 1984.

Currently allied with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in order to stay in the political game the party could consider joining another coalition if he fails in the elections scheduled for October 27.

“Shas voters are right-wing... I don’t foresee any scenario in which Shas would join forces with a left-wing party,” said Yossi Taieb, a lawmaker from Shas.

But the party is not wedded to Netanyahu’s bloc.

“Shas could be part of a much larger coalition than the current one, including centrist and center-left parties, but without extremists,” Taieb said.

“Shas will of course be part of a government of national unity,” if one is formed.

In July 2025, the party’s 11 lawmakers quit Netanyahu’s government while continuing to prop up the coalition by refusing to back opposition no-confidence motions.

Military conscription

Shas withdrew over legislation expanding compulsory military service to ultra-Orthodox Jewish men, many of whom have long been exempt while studying in religious seminaries.

Exemption from military service has become one of the defining battlegrounds of the election campaign, with ultra-Orthodox men staging frequent mass protests against conscription.

Taieb, who himself served in the military, believes the parties currently in the opposition could also produce a bill acceptable to the ultra-Orthodox.

He said leading rabbis from the community could accept drafting men who are not studying full-time in religious seminaries, known as yeshivas.

“In a Jewish State, we can convince people of the Torah’s importance, and that those studying it full time are contributing to the country,” said Taieb, a rabbi by training.

But Israel’s former Sephardi Chief Rabbi Yitzhak Yossef, whose authority carries significant weight within Shas, recently insisted his opposition to any enlistment by ultra-Orthodox Jews.

“He who studies Torah is exempt from military service, and even he who doesn’t study Torah. How could he join an army that is so secular?” Yossef said in a recording published by Israeli media in June.

Ultra-Orthodox leaders argue that military service exposes young religious men to secular society, risking their departure from the faith.

Merav Betito, a columnist for Israeli news website Ynet, argued that Shas leader Aryeh Deri, a longtime Netanyahu ally, has refused to compromise and could pay an electoral price.

“He’s never compromised over the years... and hasn’t used his position to reach different audiences,” Betito wrote.

“He repeatedly chose short-term political gains over moral integrity.”

A recent poll by public broadcaster Kan 11 says Shas is expected to get 8 seats in the 120-member legislature.

‘Radicalized’

Barak Seri, a former Shas communications adviser and expert on the ultra-Orthodox community, believes the party’s loyalty ultimately depends on who wins.

“As long as Netanyahu can form a coalition, Shas will stand by him. But if he loses, the party will join other candidates,” Seri said.

Yet he warned that integrating Shas into an alternative coalition would be difficult.

“Since all opposition parties demand military service for young ultra-Orthodox men, it’s far from certain Shas could be accepted without making major concessions.”

For more than four decades, Shas has represented mainly working-class Sephardic and Mizrahi Jews -- those of Middle Eastern or North African origin.

Taieb said most of the party’s supporters are not ultra-Orthodox but rather traditional Jews who back Shas because it champions Sephardic identity and culture.

Ultimately, however, the party’s direction is determined by the influential Council of Torah Sages -- the party’s policy making council comprising influential rabbis.

“We could have brought Netanyahu down, but we probably wouldn’t have been better off afterwards. The Council of Torah Sages made that decision and we obey,” said Taieb.

Seri sees a growing disconnect between the leadership and its traditional voter base, particularly after Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel, with many supporters questioning the party’s opposition to broader military service.

“The party has radicalized,” he said. “And because of that, it will lose many seats in the next elections.”

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Israel elections to be held on October 27, parliament says