Munir, Islamabad and the path between China and the US

In his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly, US President Donald Trump took his usual swipes at China. One of them, though, lumped in India and Russia, in the context of purchasing oil that facilitates the ongoing aggression against Ukraine. Trump’s rebuke follows the tight embrace between Chinese Premier Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier this month at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. Modi’s eastward pivot highlights a broader reshaping of American policy in South Asia, particularly a reevaluation of the roles of India and its nuclear-armed rival, Pakistan.

Conventional Beltway wisdom views Pakistan negatively, especially with the specter of Osama Bin Laden’s years-long presence in Abbottabad, and President Donald Trump conformed to this view in his first term. But he now appears to be setting aside long-standing biases to see Pakistan as a potential strategic asset, which suggests a possible realignment of US policy in South Asia, driven less by nostalgia and more by present-day imperatives.

Pakistan has navigated this opening skillfully. For starters, it extradited a suspect involved in the Kabul airport bombing that killed 13 US troops. Washington responded by designating the Mageed Brigade, a wing of the Balochistan Liberation Army, as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. But the real turning point came in May, when skirmishes between Pakistan and India renewed fears of nuclear escalation.

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Amid this backdrop, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff (now Field Marshal) Asim Munir caught Trump’s attention. With US plans underway for a potential strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Trump saw value in Munir’s regional insight, famously stating that Pakistan “knows a lot about Iran.”

A June 18 White House luncheon between Trump and Munir was unprecedented. Critics questioned the unusual protocol, but the meeting signaled a deliberate shift. Trump, ever transactional, seemed ready to move past diplomatic orthodoxy and explore mutual benefit.

The results came quickly. Pakistan, long advocating “trade, not aid,” secured a US trade deal that lowered tariffs on its exports to 19 percent, down from a proposed 29 percent, giving it an edge over regional competitors. In return, Pakistan agreed to purchase US oil and agriculture products and granted US firms access to critical minerals, including copper.

American companies will now participate in oil exploration and mining ventures in Pakistan. Fluor Corporation will establish operations, while the US Development Finance Corporation and EXIM Bank will co-finance the Reko Diq mine – valued at over $70 billion. Pakistan’s finance ministry called this “the beginning of a new era of economic collaboration,” spanning energy, IT, cryptocurrency and more.

India, having assumed US backing in any regional dispute, has bristled at the thaw in US-Pakistan ties. But Modi’s continued support for Russia, despite the invasion of Ukraine, puts it at odds with US strategic priorities. Trump has made clear that while India remains a key partner, Pakistan offers a counterweight, particularly when New Delhi appears unwilling to adjust course, as shown by doubled down on the pivot to China and Russia a the SCO.

To capitalize on this opening, Pakistan must deliver. Counterterrorism cooperation must be consistent and credible. Commitments to US goods, trade access and protection of US companies, especially in volatile regions like Balochistan, must be honored.

Critics argue that engaging Pakistan’s military leadership legitimizes nondemocratic governance, a valid concern. But in practice, meaningful change in Pakistan’s strategic orientation requires military buy-in. The Trump-Munir dynamic, though unconventional, could be an effective, interest-driven approach to a region in flux.

Pakistan is often dismissed, but doing so misses the point. It remains too strategically important for the US to ignore. The reasons are longstanding: Pakistan has the world’s fifth-largest population – two thirds under 30 – abundant natural resources, including critical minerals and agriculture, entrepreneurial talent, a strong diplomatic corps with GCC ties, influence in the Muslim world, strategic proximity and insight into Iran, a strong military with historic US connections, nuclear capabilities and a diaspora with growing clout.

For the US, engaging Pakistan offers access, to territory and minerals, as well as geopolitical intelligence, cultural insight and diplomatic influence.

But perhaps Pakistan’s greatest strategic value lies in its position as a bridge to China. The Trump administration understands that every major global issue, whether trade, climate, tech or security, must be viewed through the US-China lens.

The reality echoes Richard Nixon’s Cold War breakthrough with Chairman Mao in 1972, enabled by Pakistan’s President Yahya Khan. The context may have changed tremendously – China is now America’s third-largest trading partner and chief geopolitical rival – yet today, as Trump seeks a second détente, this time centered on trade, industrial self-reliance and avoiding military conflict, Pakistan could again be the intermediary.

Pakistan appeared at the SCO, reflecting its historic alignment with Beijing, but without the provocative fanfare shown by India. Islamabad, heavily invested in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), is uniquely placed to offer insight into Beijing’s regional ambitions. Munir, well-versed in both Western and Chinese strategic thinking, is a logical conduit for this engagement.

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